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#31
07-10-2007, 01:43 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
btw I'd fold here, but ok this is one advantage to sometimes going allin instead of making a standard raise. Problem is that against this range: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, which is somewhat loose, we aren't even 50%. Hard to say what he's doing this with to be honest, but I think I'd pass this one.
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#32
07-10-2007, 01:45 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
against a random i'd be more inclined to call because adding another 11k in chips is far more beneficial to us than losing 11k is hurtful. i'm kinda torn, too, about whether to do this against a tough player. on the one hand, getting him off hte table and chipping up will be huge to us. from the sounds of it, the rest of the table is very weak (especially to our left), which will allow us to dominate the table with our 70-80k stack. on the other hand, chipping him up sucks. i think i'd actually take the chance with AJs here if he flipped 77. [/ QUOTE ] Who cares about this guy, we have position on him anyway. I don't think the worry of maybe giving him some chips is a major factor here. It's a minor one at best, but I'd fold anyway. But okay if you have a read that he's pushing very wide, then itll be ok to call. It's just a really big overpush, the kind a lot of people make with certain hands that we don't want to see here, and the kind that a lot of people won't make with hands like A6s and 11k in chips.
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#33
07-10-2007, 01:51 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
Why in the world would a HSNL cash player be open shoving almost 30 BBs from MP with any hand (twice in a row!)? That's mind boggling.
Anyway, yeah, agree with everything Curtains says.
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#34
07-10-2007, 01:53 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he shows 77 do you call? If a random player shows 77 do you call? [/ QUOTE ] yes, yes? [/ QUOTE ] no and no, barely +EV to begin with and small, but non-zero chance of domination behind you (approx 5-8% depending on your position that someone has QQ+ or AK+ behind, which you will beat about 29%.) I mean cmon we need 47.6% equity to break even if everyone folds behind us and the actual race is 48%. I mean I did the math just now but no way in hell my instinct would be to call. [/ QUOTE ] i agree fold but arent we 45% in the race?
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#35
07-10-2007, 01:57 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he shows 77 do you call? If a random player shows 77 do you call? [/ QUOTE ] yes, yes? [/ QUOTE ] no and no, barely +EV to begin with and small, but non-zero chance of domination behind you (approx 5-8% depending on your position that someone has QQ+ or AK+ behind, which you will beat about 29%.) I mean cmon we need 47.6% equity to break even if everyone folds behind us and the actual race is 48%. I mean I did the math just now but no way in hell my instinct would be to call. [/ QUOTE ] i agree fold but arent we 45% in the race? [/ QUOTE ] What race? We have AJs right?
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#36
07-10-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he shows 77 do you call? If a random player shows 77 do you call? [/ QUOTE ] yes, yes? [/ QUOTE ] no and no, barely +EV to begin with and small, but non-zero chance of domination behind you (approx 5-8% depending on your position that someone has QQ+ or AK+ behind, which you will beat about 29%.) I mean cmon we need 47.6% equity to break even if everyone folds behind us and the actual race is 48%. I mean I did the math just now but no way in hell my instinct would be to call. [/ QUOTE ] i agree fold but arent we 45% in the race? [/ QUOTE ] What race? We have AJs right? [/ QUOTE ] Ohh my bad thought we were offsuit
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#37
07-10-2007, 05:34 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
btw I'd fold here, but ok this is one advantage to sometimes going allin instead of making a standard raise. Problem is that against this range: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, which is somewhat loose, we aren't even 50%. Hard to say what he's doing this with to be honest, but I think I'd pass this one. [/ QUOTE ] But a lot of the very top of his range isn't there.
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#39
07-10-2007, 05:43 PM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] btw I'd fold here, but ok this is one advantage to sometimes going allin instead of making a standard raise. Problem is that against this range: 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, which is somewhat loose, we aren't even 50%. Hard to say what he's doing this with to be honest, but I think I'd pass this one. [/ QUOTE ] But a lot of the very top of his range isn't there. [/ QUOTE ] Probably but a lot of that bottom range could easily not be there too. Anyway I'm sure its definitely reasonable to play the hand.
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#40
07-11-2007, 03:01 AM
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Re: Preflop spot in Main Event
wow, what a ridiculous overbet.
I have to agree that AJ is probably a fold. Is he really going to shove AT, KQ for this many BBs? I really don't think he is shoving some random junk. Usually at this stage, I will put players on a hand like TT-JJ or AK (with the blinds as they are). I will wait for something better to pick him off.
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