Preflop spot in Main Event

[mastr]

it seems that tons of people feel its shove/fold at M ofo 10 or less, i wouldn't snap fold aQ from the buttoon for the life of me

[Exitonly]

well, he mentioned that he just pushed a couple hands ago, so his pushing range for 30bb's is probably not what you're expecting.. (like mlagoo said, AA-QQ pretty much can't be in there right?) but yea, i think it has to be a fold w/ AJ.. maybe can call w/ AQ because AJ mightttttttttttttttt be in rbk's range?

[luckychewy]

rbk is definitely a sick sick sick cash game player but i have no idea what he knows about tournaments. i think AJ is a fairly easy fold though. if he is shoving w/ his stack what he should be shoving w/ a 10bb stack it shouldn't be too long before we find out(ie - he'll be shoving in a ton) and we can just adjust and call AJ. until then i muck AJ here w/o thought though.

[timex]

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what the [censored]? am I the only guy who realizes that he is shoving 30 big blinds (obv not counting antes)? i snap-fold this AJ and probably fold AQ as well.

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Fold AQ, call 22

[T_Mac]

This is a very strange hand, theres different things at work. Even though I posed the thought in the OP that he might be more likely to have a real hand the 2nd time, that was just a random surmise, really I'm more likely to call since he's doing it again. I don't know about tournies, but anyone who can beat HSNL can easily play well in a tourney as soft as the Main event, and he had made a FT earlier (tho that was omaha). The fact hes open pushing seems to suggest he can't have a strong hand, especially because other than me the table was mainly nits who would NEVER make a "big" call at this point with a marginal hand. And RBK and I had stayed out of each others way so theres no reason to think I'd call him either.

I think the last time he had made a standard raise, the invisible supernit to his left had reraised him allin. He had even joked about the fact his raise to 1200 was reraised to 15k or so. But that was just one hand, and definitely not a "move", so I couldn't understand why he was open pushing here, especially twice in a row (or 2 out of 3 hands, whichever it was). On the one hand its hard to give him a range that AJsuited isn't faring well against, and yet its 30 freaking BB like psyduck said. I still don't know, I can imagine a world where I would call with even A10 and 88+, and another world where I'd only play QQ+ and AK. Bahhhh

I'd never call with small pairs since I think his range is heavily tilted toward small and mid pairs.

[timex]

If he shows 77 do you call?

If a random player shows 77 do you call?

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
If he shows 77 do you call?

If a random player shows 77 do you call?

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yes, yes?

[timex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he shows 77 do you call?

If a random player shows 77 do you call?

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yes, yes?

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I think its less trivial than that.

I think having a very good cash game player at your table, who happens to be making 30 bet shoves with hands worse than AJ is not really encouragement to want to double him up. I think given that calling AJ is correct here, I snap fold if he shows 77.

Even if he shows 77, you have 48% equity in a pot with 23.1k in after putting in 11k, so you make like 100 chips given that the blinds fold.

I'm pretty sure the chances that the blinds wake up with hands + variance reduction make this a pretty clear fold even against a random.

[Exitonly]

yea, i take that back. I was thinking that since we're getting 1.1:1 we're neutral EV to call, but it's not a very significant portion of our stack, lets gamble and build a big one.
BUTT i didnt really think about - if he's shoving 30bb's w/ 77 then we can probably find some better spots to exploit him, and i think ti's safe to assume that the rest of the table is not going to step up and call him light before you do. And if you double him, he'll just be in a more comfortable stacksize for his cashgameballa style.

vs a random donk, i think i might still call, cause whatever he's gonna do stupid [censored] no matter what his stack size, and it's neutral/very slight positive ev so whatever, ride the variance train! we can afford to right now.

<font color="white"> ugh btw if this is really incoherrent it' sjust cause I LOVE WEEEED </font>

[THEOSU]

against a random i'd be more inclined to call because adding another 11k in chips is far more beneficial to us than losing 11k is hurtful. i'm kinda torn, too, about whether to do this against a tough player. on the one hand, getting him off hte table and chipping up will be huge to us. from the sounds of it, the rest of the table is very weak (especially to our left), which will allow us to dominate the table with our 70-80k stack. on the other hand, chipping him up sucks.

i think i'd actually take the chance with AJs here if he flipped 77.