is stealing the blinds +ev in $10nl? - Page 2

Leviathan101 · #11 05-02-2007, 04:12 PM

that hand doesn't demonstrate anything about stealing the blinds. Standard though.

Post a hand where you attempted to steal.

Mr_Pathetic · #12 05-02-2007, 04:13 PM

This is an obvious re-raise. J/K. I steal blinds at NL 2 on stars and here what's happened to me. I go in pokertracker and filter by chance to steal and raised and I see a profit of 0.89 BB/Hand. This is over 18,000 hands. I only attempt the steal about 24% of the time however.

Grunch · #13 05-02-2007, 04:14 PM

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Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

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in this example am i playing too weak?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($8.80)
Button ($6.05)
SB ($11.60)
BB ($2.65)
UTG ($5.65)
Hero ($6.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.3, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.35

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I would have raised this flop strongly and expected to win either right waway or on the turn when I fired again. When I say strongly I mean making it $2.00 to go.

Actually given your stack you cant 2nd barrel on the turn. You should have a full stack.

CaseS87 · #14 05-02-2007, 04:44 PM

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Can you post some example hands? Maybe you have a leak here we can expose.

13k hands isn't a big sample size.

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in this example am i playing too weak?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($8.80)
Button ($6.05)
SB ($11.60)
BB ($2.65)
UTG ($5.65)
Hero ($6.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

Flop: ($1.05) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.3, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $1.35

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I would have raised this flop strongly and expected to win either right waway or on the turn when I fired again. When I say strongly I mean making it $2.00 to go.

Actually given your stack you cant 2nd barrel on the turn. You should have a full stack.

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I don't like raising this flop with air. Villain is calling with hands as weak as ace high.

jerryf1914 · #15 05-02-2007, 04:44 PM

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This is an obvious re-raise. J/K. I steal blinds at NL 2 on stars and here what's happened to me. I go in pokertracker and filter by chance to steal and raised and I see a profit of 0.89 BB/Hand. This is over 18,000 hands. I only attempt the steal about 24% of the time however.

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WOW when i filter by attempts to steal i see i attempted 12% of the time (830 hands) and i am down $70.............

so it's +ev huh????

guitarizt · #16 05-03-2007, 12:54 AM

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And..... Blind stealing is +EV even at NL2.

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I do it all the time.

Fiksdal · #17 05-03-2007, 12:58 AM

FINAL ANSWER TO OP's QUESTION:

It depends on your position and your table. Only steal from CO and BTN. Only steal if the villains left to act behind you have low VPIP/folded to flop bet numbers.

lautzutao · #18 05-03-2007, 01:30 AM

I'd rather steal their stacks than the blinds. What hands are you stealing with?

CPHoya · #19 05-03-2007, 01:32 AM

Couple of thoughts:

1) Stealing the blinds is +EV anywhere.

2) Do you ever raise in any other position? In other words, does it look blatantly obvious that you're stealing the blinds because raising is something you don't otherwise do? If so, you need to work on this.

3) If you honestly feel like you're losing every time you try to steal, you can make up some of it by making timely 3-bets light when you're SB or BB after someone attempts a steal. You can do this with much less frequency and probably break even with your failed steals. Plus the raises give you a little credibility.

4) Don't try to steal with a bad hand against some dude with like 55/2/0 stats, because you're getting called. So open up your range some and get him to play back at you out of position! Make the c-bets, like Grunch said, and see what happens from there.

5) Reload your stack.

Fiksdal · #20 05-03-2007, 03:29 AM

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I'd rather steal their stacks than the blinds.

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There is a connection. If you raise it up enough, and start playing a 22/17 game, villains get angry with you. Then they think you are full of [censored] when you pot all streets, and they pay you off with all kinds of stuff.

Some people claim image is unimportant at uNL. I really disagree. In the session this hand was taken from, I had been very loose from CO/BTN, taking down the blinds or cbetting the flop. I know that SB noticed this, because he started calling me preflop. In some of those hands I took the pot on the flop, sometimes he played back at me and got the pot. Certainly those fights would not have occurred if I had been nitting it up and playing a standard late position range. Because villain wasn't that stupid.

It didn't take long before this hand took place:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.05/$0.10 Blinds
5 Players
LegoPoker HH Converter

SB: $16.15
BB: $27.05
UTG: $17.45
CO: $4.20
Hero (BTN): $9.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.35, BB folds
Uncalled bet of $0 returned to Hero

Flop: ($0.90) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.85, SB calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.60) 9

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB calls $2

River: ($6.60) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets all-in for $6.70, SB calls $6.70

Pot Size: $20 ($1 Rake)

SB had 8 T (two pair, Tens and Nines) and LOST (-$9.95)
Hero had J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a straight, Queen high) and WON (+$9.05)

I am confident that villain would not have put his stack in here if it wasn't for my blind stealing image. He knows I am bluffing preflop, and on the flop, so the fish inside him convinces main control that I will be bluffing for my entire stack for the rest of the hand also. Players loose control when playing with loose aggressive people. It induces them to make irrational decisions.

Stealing the blinds against this guy might, in a vacuum, have been slightly +EV, neutral EV or even a little -EV. However, when we see what it caused villain to do, it was certainly +EV seen as a whole.

And no, getting payed off here by that hand is not standard, even at 10NL. Against even slightly fishy opponents, I just get the pot when I bet the turn.

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What hands are you stealing with?

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Like everything in poker, this depends on my opponents. If the blinds have VPIP's < 20 or high folded to flop bet numbers, my BTN opening range is any two cards.

Obviously if my opponents are pure retards, I don't steal blinds at all. It will be -EV, and there is no need to try and put them off balance, because they already are. When I have a huge hand I am going to get their stacks no matter what their impression of me is.

So when making the decision whether or not to be stealing the blinds at a table, look at the stats of the two villains sitting to your left. If they are fish, great, sit back and wait for hands. If they are tight/passive, open up! You have a job to do!