Stars $65 Satellite, Blocking Bet on Turn

[Jbrochu]

I've been making a fair number of blocking bets on the river since I first learned about the concept. This hand is the first time I've used one on the turn.

This is basically a winner take all satellite (second place doesn't even get the price of there buyin back) so I'm playing more aggressive than a 50/30/20 STT.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter

Button (t645)
Hero (t2985)
BB (t1325)
UTG (t2030)
MP1 (t3695)
MP2 (t1365)
CO (t1455)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t30, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t90) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t60</font>, BB folds, Button calls t60.

Turn: (t210) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t40</font>, Button calls t40.

River: (t290) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

I'll give my thoughts on the different streets later, but I'm curious about how much to bet now that I hit the perfect card on the river.

[IWEARGOGGLES]

What is this for the $1M guaranteed? These satellites are meh in terms of competition. Probably almost the same as a $60, but looser around the time of the tourney.

My thoughts:

If you bet more on the turn, he might fold...like 125-130.

If he still calls, you've built a pot and hit your hand on the river, allowing you to extract more value.

A set/boat would've raised this turn. I think it is fairly obvious you have the best hand (on the river). As a matter of fact, I'm not sure what kind of trash he is playing this way. Underplayed overpair?

[abcstore]

Considering Button limped, overpair seems unlikely also since u hold T9 and button = short. Looks like he either had a8/a6 or two suited overcards on flop, called w/ a diamond draw on turn and hit brick on river.

River: you could bet 3/4 pot (220ish) hoping a call from a pair, or check inducing bluff (short, he might), then push.
I think I'd bet.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet more on the turn, he might fold...like 125-130.

If he still calls, you've built a pot and hit your hand on the river, allowing you to extract more value.



[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding the size of the turn bet:

- I'm fairly certain after he calls my flop bet that he's paired the 6 or the 8 or he has two overs. I guess if he has two overs he might fold to a bet of t130.

- If he does have a real hand here he's probably going to push over my bet and I've just wasted extra chips.

- If he has paired the 6, or the 8 with a weak kicker, he's probably going to at least call the t125 and I didn't give myself the right odds to my longshot draw. (I don't want to build a pot in this spot in NL - that sounds like maybe a limit concept.)

- If I check he's probably going to at least raise enough that I have to fold.

When I considered these things I decided a little blocking bet might work since it almost game me direct pot odds to my draw (counting my overs as partial outs), I lose less if he actually has a hand (or if he recognizes what I'm doing and pushes), and there is even a tiny chance he folds and I don't have to make my draw.

I had also seen him call down two tiny "probe bets" with medium pair a little earlier.