NL $200 KQs Nut FD vs Reraise

[eigenvalue]

Reads: BTN is a station, SB is a solid regular.

Is this correct: Push>Fold>Call?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $292.50
UTG+1: $83.80
Hero: $361.15
Button: $208.80
SB: $395
BB: $610.80

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $7</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($28, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $30</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $120</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000"> Hero?

[oli1980]

fold is correct. You have to discount many outs

[13_Xerxes]

Why do you pot the flop if you don't shove when you're raised ?
I bet smaller (20-ish or 15) and I probably call (because deep) or shove if I'm raised (induce bluff by small bet).

You've 12 outs two times if you shove and a Royal Flush draw. But I fold, because I am not a gambler (see the stacks) and 999 is probably good.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
fold is correct. You have to discount many outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm, hero has 11 outs to the nuts.

[docnuclear]

push. He has 2 pair and sets some (although wouldn't he reraise squeeze some with 99 TT ???) but I think he has a combo draw a lot here (7d8d, Jd8d)which you are so ahead of. Plus you have some outs, the pot is big and he might fold bottom 2.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fold is correct. You have to discount many outs

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm, hero has 11 outs to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

12?

oh, 9d not the nuts. im tired/dumb.

[docnuclear]

how do you put a hand range in pokerstove, I can't seem to be able to do it ???

[thac]

Btw, we're 40% against top two here, but I'd wanna keep BTN around (especially since we're like 180bb deep), call and see what happens on the turn.. or is that atrocious?

[Nick Royale]

I would not pot the flop, I would bet $20-22.

How to react vs this c/r comes down to how often this is a draw/combo draw. I don't think this is a combo draw that often from a solid reg this deep, there's not many combo draws possible and at least 50% of them has us beat already. I think this is A9+ most often against which we have less than 38% equity. I like calling, keeping the other player in with a fd or whatever he holds, I wouldn't mind him pushing after we call giving us better odds when calling the 3-ways shove.

So I like calling and hitting one of our 11 nut outs, we're getting 2.3:1 immediate with a chance of even better if the 3rd player calls. We need about 3.2:1 immediate if we have 11 outs and thus we need only like $80 in implied odds to call having 240 behind vs the reg.

Call&gt;shove&gt;fold imo.

[Imrahil]

I like calling because of stacksizes plus the station donk is left to act and he may very well call giving us 3 to 1 odds.