100NL: I Am So Confused

Kos13 · #1 09-07-2007, 09:21 PM

SB is a 12/4 set-mining reg (I think he plays full time). He's not aggro enough to be a great player, but he certainly knows what he's doing and is one of the better players at the level. We've played thousands of hands together...he tends to call me down a little light because I'm pretty aggro. He's check-raised me a couple times recently, but I never had a hand, so I never got to see his cards.

C-bet was supposed to be $9, but I don't think it really matters the way this hand played out. I just can't put him on a hand here. TT makes sense, but would he really overbet shove the turn since he knows I can fold an overpair? I'm just completely confused. Should I call or fold?

UB NLHE - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players

Hero ($113.30)
MP3 ($55.20)
CO ($106.50)
Button ($107.65)
SB ($22.60)
BB ($130.15)
UTG ($184)
UTG+1 ($294.50)
MP1 ($99)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, BB calls $3, UTG+1 calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8, BB raises to $21, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $13.

Turn: ($54.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $105.15 (All-In), HERO is confused

Keyser112 · #2 09-07-2007, 09:38 PM

go the weak route and just fold.

SABR42 · #3 09-07-2007, 09:52 PM

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

JulioYalil · #4 09-07-2007, 09:56 PM

this doesn't seem that hard of a decision to make. u wrote u've played thousands of hands w/ this player so u should know him/her well by now. there is $159 in the pot ($12 preflop & $42 on the flop plus the $105 all in on turn) and u need to call $105. u r gettin 1.5:1 on ur money which means u need to win the hand more than 1 out of every 2.5 times or over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. just pick a hand range for this person (since u r supposed to know him/her that well) and measure ur hand against his range.

if u don't know how to do this then u def have a lot to learn yet. u could start by reading an article phil galfond (omgclayaiken) wrote not so long ago for bluff mag about hand ranges and what he called "g-bucks". i believe it's the simplest way i've ever read that concept explained.
link to article

Kos13 · #5 09-07-2007, 10:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

He views me as very TAGish; I'm running ~13.5/9 lately. I raise a lot (at least compared to most players at the level), I c-bet a lot, but I can fold a big hand, and he knows this. He's borderline nitty, but his game isn't just set-or-fold...he doesn't really have multiple speeds, but he isn't a total nitfish. What confuses me is that no hand fits his line. If he has...

QQ: he knows the only hand that calls him has him beat
KK: same as QQ...I'm never calling this with queens, so KK is never good if he's called
AA: possible but highly, highly unlikely
TT: why would he overbet when he knows I can fold an overpair?
JJ: same as TT, and I don't think he'd raise the flop anyway
8-x: possible, but he's so nitty that it would have to be 98s, and even that is very questionable

JulioYalil · #6 09-07-2007, 10:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

How does he view you?

If he's nitty, you should just fold. Your hand looks like an overpair, and he's trying to get max value.

[/ QUOTE ]

op did write the person knows he'll fold an overpair.

overall i'd say this is usually a fold. but knowin villain knows we'll fold an overpair here makes me wanna call more times than not b/c that will take away many hands that beat us from his range. it just doesn't make any sense to scare u away w/ such a strong hand like a full house.

Berge20 · #7 09-07-2007, 10:03 PM

Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

Kos13 · #8 09-07-2007, 10:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this doesn't seem that hard of a decision to make. u wrote u've played thousands of hands w/ this player so u should know him/her well by now. there is $159 in the pot ($12 preflop & $42 on the flop plus the $105 all in on turn) and u need to call $105. u r gettin 1.5:1 on ur money which means u need to win the hand more than 1 out of every 2.5 times or over 40% of the time to make the call profitable. just pick a hand range for this person (since u r supposed to know him/her that well) and measure ur hand against his range.

if u don't know how to do this then u def have a lot to learn yet. u could start by reading an article phil galfond (omgclayaiken) wrote not so long ago for bluff mag about hand ranges and what he called "g-bucks". i believe it's the simplest way i've ever read that concept explained.
link to article

[/ QUOTE ]

El-oh-el at this whole post.

I'm going to completely ignore how much you ripped on me in this post and just ask you what YOU think his range is here. Just because I've played a lot of hands with him doesn't mean he's transparent...my God, if that were true, the pros would never play against each other since they'd always know what the other players had.

Kos13 · #9 09-07-2007, 10:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Have you ever seen him do this overbet move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not against me. He's done it against bad players with "vulnerable" hands (made up example: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. a 30/7 on a J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]-8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]-2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] board). However, if we assume he can't have AA, a shove with QQ/KK is basically a bluff since he's never ahead when I call. At the same time, shoving with a set means he doesn't get any value. So...I'm lost.

jxboot · #10 09-07-2007, 10:15 PM

I would fold. Mainly because I highly doubt this guy would risk ALL of his chips without having a good hand. You said yourself..

[ QUOTE ]
he certainly knows what he's doing

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying that all-in in that situation is a good idea but knowing that he's pretty good (from what you say) I highly doubt he would risk all of his chips in that situation without having a solid hand.

If he has TT, his thought process could be (given the fact you guys have played a lot of hands together) that he knows you're pretty aggro and this could be a chance for you to hang yourself. From his point of view...

You raised preflop (not sure on your stats but for argument sake we'll say he thinks you're TAG) putting you on two high cards and JJ+ (assuming he has TT, he wont put you on TT+). The flop was amazing for him so he checks raises because he knows you're gonna c-bet a) because he knows you to be aggro and b) because a c-bet makes sense here. Once you make the call he can assume you have a high pair, JJ+. Because you called the flop he could think that you're going to commit yourself to the hand and he thinks that you're going to pay him off here.

Thats the only logical thought process I can think of if he has the hand, I'm not saying what he did was right but for a person who might "know what he's doing" this thought process makes some sense...I think...or I could be giving him way more credit than he deserves ...