Shoeprint #1: Six Flags (SIX)

[DcifrThs]

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If the SP analyst could call a triple in stocks, he'd be at a hedge fund.

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they can and do call it...all the time.


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No, they don't.

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when you say "call it" i think you mean "correctly predict the occurance of"

when i say "call it" i mean "predict the occurance of"

analysts "call" for lots of stuff, the ones who are right and have solid backgrounds get snatched up by hedge funds from what i've seen. those who do not or who do not trust their own predictions enough (not many imo) stay in sell side.

Barron

[prohornblower]

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Also, If anyone knows of...any disclaimers I need to make...for these kind of posts, please let me know.
Shoe

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Perhaps one that says you aren't qualified to give investment advice?

[DcifrThs]

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If the SP analyst could call a triple in stocks, he'd be at a hedge fund.

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they can and do call it...all the time.


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No, they don't.

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I haven't seen evidence from either of you, but I am much more inclined to believe our very well informed mod over someone responding with a no they don't.

Second of all, even if this stock doesn't hit a $9 target if it makes it halfway there it will still be almost 100% in gains.

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first off, Evan and Ahnold are the mods of this fine forum... i'm just a guy who has recently posted a lot.

the above bold can be a big mistake. NoD has proven himself to be extremely intelligent in my eyes and also very well informed.

i think what we have here is a semantics issue. i'm simply saying analysts make calls all the time. those who prove themselves may have an option to move to the buy side and make a ton working for hedge funds and other asset managers.

those who don't like taking chances w/ real money and just love the research may stay in academics or the sell side.

this is a simplistic view but i think outlines the opint of the conversation.

NoD seems (to me) to be saying the same thing but defines "calls it" to mean "says XYZ and gets XYZ right"

Barron

[Shoe]

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Also, If anyone knows of...any disclaimers I need to make...for these kind of posts, please let me know.
Shoe

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Perhaps one that says you aren't qualified to give investment advice?

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Take my advice for what you think it is worth, which is virtually nothing for many of you on this board. I still plan to keep posting my stock opinions, but of course don't buy unless you have also done your own research and are comfortable with it.

I also think i'm better than 90% of the financial advisors out there, because 90% of the financial advisors out there are only there to earn commissions off of you not maximize your returns.

What do you guys suggest I should use as my "buy" price for this to track my results. I posted on monday saying i expected it to bottom out sometime this week. Obviously, using today's opening would be unfair because I'd be picking the lowest point in hindsight to base my results on. Should I use Monday's close even though I wasn't necarsairly saying "buy" right at that exact time?

Going forward I'll use the price at the time of my post for tracking results.

Also, if anyone is interested, I started a CAPS portfolio at fool.com. My player id over there is ShoeFTW.

Some other thoughts --

With the latest dip NTDOY is a great buying opportunity right now at 57.20.

AMZN - I think amazon is way overvalued and due for a correction. However, the stock is hot right now and I would not suggest shorting it until it appears to be cooling off, it might be a long time before it starts to correct.

[prohornblower]

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Also, If anyone knows of...any disclaimers I need to make...for these kind of posts, please let me know.
Shoe

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Perhaps one that says you aren't qualified to give investment advice?

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Take my advice for what you think it is worth, which is virtually nothing for many of you on this board.

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I've already put a value on it (your advice) because I've read several of your posts. Don't get me wrong, I hope you succeed if you put in the work, but I'm wary of lurkers on this site who may come in here and read this stuff and think you are some bigtime value assessor.

[RicoTubbs]

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AMZN - I think amazon is way overvalued and due for a correction. However, the stock is hot right now and I would not suggest shorting it until it appears to be cooling off, it might be a long time before it starts to correct.

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This is exactly the precise, actionable type of information I'm looking for.

Looking forward to your next pick.

[emon87]

well, with the massive (probably) one time revenue boost that amazon prime caused, it is a fairly good chance he is right, although the analysis is certainly... non-existant. i'm also not an expert and not trying to be like shoe is.

[Shoe]

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AMZN - I think amazon is way overvalued and due for a correction. However, the stock is hot right now and I would not suggest shorting it until it appears to be cooling off, it might be a long time before it starts to correct.

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This is exactly the precise, actionable type of information I'm looking for.

Looking forward to your next pick.

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Whatever dude. AMZN was definitely not my immediate pick. Buy NTDOY is my main pick, I also think buying SIX now will give you a good short-term boost. I also like GME at least through the upcoming holiday season.

If you disagree with me on AMZN I would love to hear why. If you know anything about the markets it is that a stock might be priced wrong, but it can take the market a long time to realize that and correct. You especially don't want to short a stock when the slightest bit of positive news causes it to jump 25% (which has happened twice recently -- once when amazone prime is annonce, and also with their latest earnings reports -- both which the market has greatly over-reacted to). And this isn't a penny stock we are talking about jumping 25% in a day, this is a stock with market cap of ~$30 Billion.

1. Amazon prime is not going to be the next iTunes.

2. Amazon finally showed a decent profit. Not a great profit. People have already priced a great profit potential into their stock.

[bmxicle]

Read the intelligent investor please.

[RicoTubbs]

I was trying to put myself in the position of someone receiving your newsletter. I open up my newsletter excitedly and see this:
AMZN - I think amazon is way overvalued and due for a correction. However, the stock is hot right now and I would not suggest shorting it until it appears to be cooling off, it might be a long time before it starts to correct.

I am unhappy for two reasons:
1. The complete lack of any analysis or evidence of why the stock may be overvalued.

2. (What drove me to post). There's absolutely no indication of what I am supposed to do. I'm getting your newsletter because you know about stocks and I'm using your knowledge to profit. So what do I do? It's overvalued, so I should sell or short? No - you tell me not to short because it's "hot". So should I buy the hot stock? Probably not. Apparently, I should short, but not until after it's "cooling off". How on earth do I know when it's cooling off?

It's the kind of generalized nonsense that can be rationalized after almost any market movement:
- Amazon went up? See, I told you it was "hot"
- Amazon went down? See, I told you it was overvalued
- Amazon was flat? I told you it would cool off

It's like going to a psychic and being told that I should be very careful about decisions regarding the number 4. If you're so inclined, you can look into it and see a lot of truth. If you're more skeptical, you can look at it as a big cloud of fuzzy nonsense.