Shoeprint #1: Six Flags (SIX)

[Shoe]

The market has overreacted to Six Flags (SIX) latest earnings report in a big way and this stock has really gotten pummeled as a result. Look for it to bottom out sometime this week if it hasn't already done so today.

I am expecting it to bounce back to the 4.25 - 4.50 range sometime in the next 1.5 months, and would sell when it reaches that range.

I feel this stock will be a good long-term buy next spring, as the new management's turn-around plan should be starting to bear fruit by then. In the mean time, this stock should remain highly volatile, making for some great swing trading.

I do not currently own any shares of SIX, but am most likely going to purchase some tomorrow. As always, I cannot guarantee how the market or this stock will actually perform. Please only buy/sell after doing your own due dilgence as well.

Also, If anyone knows of any legal requirements I should be aware of or any disclaimers I need to make to make (such as the one above) for these kind of posts, please let me know. I definitely don't have the clout to move the market so I don't think I need to worry about that, but want to make sure I am not in a grey area here.

Thank you for your time.

Go forth and prosper!

Shoe

[gull]

Question:

If this stock will be a good long-term buy next spring, why is it not a good long-term buy now? Will short-term price fluctuations impact the long-term returns of this stock?

[hawk59]

Why are any of your opinions right? At least give one real reason.

[Shoe]

[ QUOTE ]
Question:

If this stock will be a good long-term buy next spring, why is it not a good long-term buy now? Will short-term price fluctuations impact the long-term returns of this stock?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I do believe it is a good long-term buy at the current price. However, I feel that over the approximately next 9 months you will be able to get better returns from other stocks, but still being able to make a number of good short-term trades on this stock during that time. I feel that now is one of those good times for a rather quick 15%.

[critikal]

What do you think about their current debt/cash flow situation? From a quick glance at the company it looks like they'll have an awfully hard time turning around the company (and paying off their debt) with such low cash flows. They are, however, borrowing less money now (~5M in 2006 vs. ~443M in 2004) is this management's decision or their financiers?

You say that in the short term they will bounce 15%, do you have a catalyst for this or do you just "have a feeling". Almost 27% of the shares outstanding have been shorted-an astronomical number. I guess there's a good possibility for a short squeeze, but with that high of a percentage I'd do more research before buying the stock.

[jumbojacks]

[ QUOTE ]
I feel this stock will be a good long-term buy next spring, as the new management's turn-around plan should be starting to bear fruit by then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you further expand on this point?

[polkaface]

I think this is what Shoe is getting at.

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...six-flags.aspx

http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...-the-mark.aspx

[DcifrThs]

good work shoe, now you can track yourself and learn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

<3

Barron

[ChipWrecked]

I don't know if it would be relevant to a stock purchase decision but Six Flags' reputation as a fun place to go has sagged quite a bit in the past few years.

Magic Mountain in L.A. and Discovery Kingdom in the Bay Area are havens for gang activity. Google any theme park message board for lots of discussion on this. An Atlanta teen was recently beaten by gang members (some of whom turned out to be Six Flags employees) outside the gate of Six Flags Over Georgia.

My kids are too young for theme parks yet; but several parents I know refuse to take their kids to Six Flags properties.

[emon87]

Yeah none of my friends think that "Six Flags = fun" the way people used to.