QQ 2nd day of 1500 nl... - Page 3

KneeCo · #21 06-22-2007, 12:25 PM

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i sure am not folding an overpair 40BB deep when i have an image of an aggressive player capable of running a big bluff...

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it's funny, one this I've noticed about the HSMTT forum (which I really like) is very often someone nails the correct answer in like the first three replies but the discussion just keeps going and going. This isn't a bad thing, it's actually quite good, I've just noticed it a lot more than pretty much any other forum.

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The worst hand I could see him showing up with here is some sort of big draw... I really don't see him raising that much with air... I think he could easily show up with AA,KK,99,88,44...

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Board: 9s 8s 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.342% 48.39% 00.95% 23952 472.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 50.658% 49.70% 00.95% 24603 472.50 { 88+, 44, JTs, AKo }
(Yes, I threw AK in there, I think its as a very conservative bluff coverer, I actually think this is a fair range and if anything a little on the tight side).

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Seriously... to those that say easy shove, what are you doing w/ A9 here???

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QQ != A9 in this spot.

Board: 9s 8s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.263% 32.26% 00.00% 180141 0.00 { A9s, A9o }
Hand 1: 67.737% 67.74% 00.00% 378219 0.00 { 88+, 44, JTs, AKo }

Bakes · #22 06-22-2007, 01:33 PM

if he ever calls pre to outplay post, this is a great board for a raise imo. i dont see how you can get away from this at all.

Todd Terry · #23 06-22-2007, 02:44 PM

This is an impossible situation, and a good case can be made for pushing, calling or folding. If you're both very good, agressive players, from his perspective, you could have anything, and from your perspective, he could have anything. The "I don't think he'd risk that much of his stack on a bluff" doesn't apply to great players. If you think you have a serious edge over the other players at the table, you might be better off folding, since you could be way behind. But, if you fold, you're sending out a signal to any good aggressive players at the table (according to you, he's the only other one) that you can be pushed around. You could also be way ahead, and this could be your shot to accumulate a monster stack and cripple your only real competition at the table. Or you could be racing. He could have a big draw, in which case the best play would be to call and then push if the turn is a brick.

Look down at your watch. If the second hand is between 1-20, push; 21-40, call; 41-60, fold.

FGators · #24 06-22-2007, 03:01 PM

Range is probably 89,sets,76s,Q10s,J10s,and air.

I'm not sure how often this is JJ or tens since he likely repops them preflop, as well as Aces or Kings.

Tough spot but given 40 BB stacks I'd jam it.

FGators · #25 06-22-2007, 03:03 PM

EDIT

Anybody believe that due to the creative clashing in the past that it is more likely that he actually has a hand here and won't be messing around with air because hero is more likely to call?

Put me in that camp.

I'm treating A9 like AA, KK, and QQ here.

I don't think his range includes big pairs...its mainly the range in my above post so yeah, if Im jamming QQ Im jamming A9.

potamophobia · #26 06-22-2007, 03:06 PM

I dont see why you keep asking what people would do with A9 here? That is a completely different situation. If you have A9, it is reasonable for villain to now hold TT-QQ. If he has TJ, you have to fade so many cards to win.

As it is, you beat TT-JJ, A9, 67, TJ, Axs, 9T and lose to AA, KK, 99, 88, 89.

The only way im folding here is:
1. I rarely cbet any flop
2. I am perceived as VERY tight
3. My opponent is not capable of raising here as a semibluff

Somehow I dont think those 3 criteria are met here. I think laying down A9 is much more understandable than laying down QQ.

roo400 · #27 06-22-2007, 03:06 PM

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Range is probably 89,sets,76s,Q10s,J10s,and air.

I'm not sure how often this is JJ or tens since he likely repops them preflop, as well as Aces or Kings.

Tough spot but given 40 BB stacks I'd jam it.

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I think TT/JJ is a good portion of his range. He has position and the raise comes from UTG. He's certainly not folding but 3betting lets all lesser hands fold and all better hands crush you.

JP OSU · #28 06-22-2007, 04:09 PM

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I think TT/JJ is a good portion of his range. He has position and the raise comes from UTG. He's certainly not folding but 3betting lets all lesser hands fold and all better hands crush you.

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Couldn't the exact same be said for TT and JJ on this flop?

roo400 · #29 06-22-2007, 04:26 PM

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I think TT/JJ is a good portion of his range. He has position and the raise comes from UTG. He's certainly not folding but 3betting lets all lesser hands fold and all better hands crush you.

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Couldn't the exact same be said for TT and JJ on this flop?

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no, too many draws to slowplay

THEOSU · #30 06-22-2007, 05:18 PM

I'm pretty sure that he would NOT reraise TT and JJ preflop. You showed the T9, so if he reraises TT and JJ, he's pretty much telling you to play perfectly, becuase are you going to fourbang a bluff again? Not bloody likely.

TT and JJ are pretty prominently in his range, which is why i retract my earlier statement that A9 is pretty much the nuts. It's not. QQ is so far and away better than A9 on this board, it's not funny.

I seriously can't imagine folding this hand in this spot. If OP's plan was to bet/fold QQ on the flop, then I'm pretty sure betting the flop was a real, real bad idea.