News Alert:: Japanese too busy to have sex!

[Kintamayama]

Japanese married couples are still having sex. Just not with their spouses...

[El Diablo]

Rick,

The fact that this has compelled Boris to provide expert commentary on the topic it makes it very EDForumworthy.

[HP]

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good for them, if only everyone followed their lead.

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uhhh.. what? Japan could be in a lot of trouble due to this, especially given their very low immigration rate.

By the way, most of Europe is definitely following suit (I think Greece has the lowest birthrate, with Germany, Spain, and France not far behind), and it's going to cause a buttload of problems. It's tough to run a welfare state without babies.

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ditto for Australia. Last I checked we had a birthrate of ~1.4

We should be alright though cause lots of people seem to want to immigrate to here, so we get to pick and choose the best (and turn away the rest or lock them up or whatever).

[einbert]

Japanese couples frequently stop having sex when they're done having kids. Japanese men generally prefer younger prostitutes to their aging, childbearing wives. And this is pretty much accepted practice by a large portion of the women too, which is sad.

[turnipmonster]

well according to this , we are all going to have tons of problems because the US birth rate (as well as china) is quite low.

is it definitely 100% true that an aging population is bad for economies? if so, what are the reasons? I haven't read much about this type of thing and am curious. seems like some pretty bad off countries currently have very high birth rates.

[kidcolin]

turnip,

US's current birthrate is right at replacement level (or close to it). Plus we have a large amount of immigration (not even counting illegal immigration, which the effects on economy I know very little about). And our economy is growing. So we're in OK shape economically speaking.

The reason a low birth rate hurts economically is very basic from a high level. In Europe, it's basically a bunch of cradle->grave welfare states. Unemployment rates are large. Work weeks in many countries are 30 hours a week, with 4-6 weeks guaranteed vacation and early retirement that bring with it expensive, lavish retirement packages provided by the gov't. Who pays? The workers, and the tax burdens are enormous. When your workforce is dwindling, it's clear that the burden per worker increases. So some will leave to find greater reward for their efforts. Some will simply say "screw it" and join the welfare crowd, seeing little benefit in working hard. Eventually it all collapses.

Yes, immigration helps curtail this, but it's not safe to rely on. I believe in places like France and Germany where unemployment is around 10%, around half of the people on welfare are immigrants.

As for the places with high birthrates and awful economies (Africa, Middle East), there are a bunch of factors that I'm not entirely educated on. Part of it might have to do with agricultural based societies (kids = workers, like early US), part of it's an ideology (devout Muslims want kids, much like devout Christians), and I'm sure there are some other reasons.

For more on the subject, I suggest Mark Steyn's America Alone. Yes he's a hardcore conservative and you may not agree with it all. I didn't. But it's a pretty basic look at the importance of demography and ideology and there's a lot of good data in it. Worth a read one way or the other, IMO.

I'm currently looking for other reads about demography and economic impact, so if anyone has some books to suggest please provide.

[Shadowrun]

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good for them, if only everyone followed their lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhh.. what? Japan could be in a lot of trouble due to this, especially given their very low immigration rate.

By the way, most of Europe is definitely following suit (I think Greece has the lowest birthrate, with Germany, Spain, and France not far behind), and it's going to cause a buttload of problems. It's tough to run a welfare state without babies.

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto for Australia. Last I checked we had a birthrate of ~1.4

We should be alright though cause lots of people seem to want to immigrate to here, so we get to pick and choose the best (and turn away the rest or lock them up or whatever).

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The effects of an aging population are considerable. Economically, older people are more likely to be saving money and less likely to be spending it on consumer goods. This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure. Some economists (Japan) are seeing advantages in this evolution, notably the possibility to go further in automatisation and technological development without the burden of social effects from reducing the wage labour force and unemployment. They emphasise a shift from GDP to Personal well being. It is also a start to reverse the evolution to world overpopulation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_population

You have to take the good with the bad.

(also i will try to ask my econ teacher what he thinks, he graduated from London School of Economics and got his Phd at Yale)

[kidcolin]

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The effects of an aging population are considerable. Economically, older people are more likely to be saving money and less likely to be spending it on consumer goods. This leads to lower interest rates and disinflationary or even deflationary pressure. Some economists (Japan) are seeing advantages in this evolution, notably the possibility to go further in automatisation and technological development without the burden of social effects from reducing the wage labour force and unemployment. They emphasise a shift from GDP to Personal well being. It is also a start to reverse the evolution to world overpopulation.

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Your first point: older people are more likely to be saving money and less likely to be spending it on consumer goods. I might buy this to some degree, but would like to see some examples of truth to it. For a lot of old people who busted their hump all their life working and raising kids, the golden years are when they let loose. Golf club memberships, cruises, travel, etc. Not sure if those count as "consumer goods", but they have economic impact.

Second, the "benefit" of the overpopulation in allowing automatisation, is artificial. It may be accurate, but its cause isn't automatisation, and its cure isn't getting older. I remember people getting really concerned for gas station employees when self serve was on the rise and pumps started taking credit cards. Should we coddle those employees? Well, at least New Jersey thinks so.

As for the overpopulation argument, I won't get into it. Overpopulation has been screamed from the hilltops for a while now and I think it's a farce. And if Japan and the US stops having kids, it doesn't mean the rest of the world does. You basically get a "meek inherit the earth" type of thing, and if that's what you want, be careful what you wish for.

[Rick Nebiolo]

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well according to this , we are all going to have tons of problems because the US birth rate (as well as china) is quite low.

is it definitely 100% true that an aging population is bad for economies? if so, what are the reasons? I haven't read much about this type of thing and am curious. seems like some pretty bad off countries currently have very high birth rates.

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Perhaps because I wrote the OP in the wee hours the headline/title for this story seemed wrong for the 2+2 Politics forum. Over there we had a related thread and at least one that stated with a quite different viewpoint.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

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Japanese married couples are still having sex. Just not with their spouses...

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Will the non-spouses pick up the slack and have some babies or are the non-spouses somebody else's spouse?

~ Rick