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Old 03-19-2007, 12:06 AM
Shoe Shoe is offline
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Default Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

A little background first. I'm 28 and graduated college 7 years ago this spring. Since then I have watched 2 markets go from the infant stages to the mature stages. These are the poker industry, and the selling of virtual items in MMORPG's industry (such as selling gold in world of warcraft for real money).

I got a degree in computer programming. I worked full time for a couple years after graduating college, and then quit my job to sell video game items (it was everquest currency and items for real money at the time), and eventaully found poker along the way too.

Knowing what I know now about both of these industries, I could have made fortunes. All the money I made was from either playing the game and reselling what I made in the game for real money, or from winning at poker. I also bought game money (from everquest) in bulk and resold it in smaller quantities for a profit.

The problem with my line of thinking, even though it was profitable, is that I only make money while I'm working. I'm trying hard to "make my money work for me" and be able to generate money even after I have stopped working. Examples would be setting up a website with affiliate links for rakeback in the poker industry, or pointing to affiliate links to IGE in the MMORPG industry.

The debate I have right now is this, should I try to make something like a rakeback site and compete with the many other who have already done so and have already captured most of the market? Or should I just remember the lessons I have learned and wait until I find the next "startup" industry and be ready to hit the ground running? I don't want to just sit around and do nothing, but I feel like I know what to look for now (set up a business where I can make passive income, as opposed to having to work for every dollar). However, I don't really know what the up and coming hot industries are. I found my way into both of the industries mentioned in this thread by chance. I don't know if I have knack for finding what will be hot 2-3 years from now or not, or if I am getting to old to keep up with the trends. I want to find an industry that is still young and try to start up something up similar to what the rakeback companies have done with online poker. Does anyone know how you go about finding new opportunities? Or is it pretty much based on what paths you are lucky enough to cross?
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  #2  
Old 03-19-2007, 12:31 AM
scotty M scotty M is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

I'd say that if anyone here knows what the "next big thing" is they'd keep it to themselves.

There are plenty of markets that are hot that you can get involved in. The problem is that there's a ton of competition in the hot markets, so you have to be good to make money.

Some examples:

Ringtones
Online Taxes, especially this time of year.
Mortgage leads when rates are down.
Payday loans
Online DVD rental

Tons of other stuff. Poker is going to be a tough one to top. I hear ya when you say you wished you knew about it when it was heating up, I feel the same way.
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Old 03-19-2007, 08:59 AM
spex x spex x is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

Don't worry, you're not alone. Everyone is looking for the next big thing. In fact, they've got a whole industry of people sitting around waiting to get their money into the next big idea - they're called venture capitalists.

My question to you is this: Why do you need to know what the next big thing is? Don't you think that you can make money in more traditional/established industries?
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Old 03-19-2007, 10:33 AM
BradleyT BradleyT is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

[ QUOTE ]
There are plenty of markets that are hot that you can get involved in. The problem is that there's a ton of competition in the hot markets, so you have to be good to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

When there is tons of competition in a market that usually means there is money to be made somewhere in that market. You simply have to come up with an edge you'll have whether it be better SEO, better design, new idea not implimented in that market, lower prices, personalized service, etc.

When there's a billion dollar industry, taking a small share of $500K/year hardly gets noticed. Healthcare, food and travel are all TRILLION dollar industries....
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Old 03-19-2007, 01:14 PM
Shoe Shoe is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

Thanks for the replies all -- maybe I should just concentrating on carving a small piece of what is already a huge pie. Your replies are definitely help me think in the right direction.

I just want to clarify one thing though -- I'm not asking "what is the next big thing" -- I don't expect anyone to know that (or to share if they do know). The main point to my question was, how do you follow trends, etc... to identify a new business area that has gotten hot, that would otherwise be completely off your radar? My goal would be to get in the industry while it is still young, and apply lessons I have learned from watching other markets develop. I'm guessing most of it would come from word of mouth or finding an article online about the subject.
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  #6  
Old 03-19-2007, 01:19 PM
BradleyT BradleyT is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

Well there's always -

http://www.google.com/trends
http://buzz.yahoo.com/
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  #7  
Old 03-19-2007, 01:54 PM
dc_publius dc_publius is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

Carving out a piece from a big nongrowing industry is alot harder than entering a new growing industry. In a low growth industry everyone is going after the same piece of the pie, and they won't just give up their 1% willingly. In growth industries, everyone is profiting and growing because of the growth.

I have seen several trends come and go where people made a ton of money for little or no work, but where I learned about it too late. This includes simple things like Alladvantage/casino bonuses that people gamed to get a few grand/month as well as bigger opportunities like poker.

IMO, the critical aspect to finding the 'next thing' is being part of many communities and keeping your eyes open. the worst thing you can do is keeping the same surroundings. For example, I used to only read Fatwallet.com and I never learned about poker/casino stuff because they don't allow posting of gambling related things. Likewise, if you only read 2+2, you are unlikely to learn about things that are not interesting to most poker players.

Now the question is, which communities/newsites are at the forefront of big waves. I wish I knew. I do read techcrunch.com - a blog about new startups and VC - and fatwallet.com, but not much else. I would like to hear some suggestions as well, and perhaps stories of others and how they found their big thing in the past.

Lastly, about 'passive income'. PI as a concept is great, but most people get to passive income through active income. They work, then they invest, and then live off their investments. If you hit one or two hot things, you can make your 1 million and at that point simple investments will get you 80-120K/year in income. That's as passive as it gets. It's not balla money, but it's decent money to live in most places on earth. Or you build your business to the point where it runs itself/pay someone to run it, but it's still alot of work early to get to PI at the end. I guess my point is to pursue income and opportunities, and not worry about PI as that will be the result anyway.
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Old 03-19-2007, 02:02 PM
spex x spex x is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

[ QUOTE ]

Lastly, about 'passive income'. PI as a concept is great, but most people get to passive income through active income. They work, then they invest, and then live off their investments. If you hit one or two hot things, you can make your 1 million and at that point simple investments will get you 80-120K/year in income. That's as passive as it gets. It's not balla money, but it's decent money to live in most places on earth. Or you build your business to the point where it runs itself/pay someone to run it, but it's still alot of work early to get to PI at the end. I guess my point is to pursue income and opportunities, and not worry about PI as that will be the result anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, very good point. I'll add that you should be looking for concepts where it is possible to eventually get to a PI level. Many business concepts continually rely on the owner's ingenuity or personality to make the business prosper. You want to avoid these.
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  #9  
Old 03-19-2007, 02:37 PM
MrBlue MrBlue is offline
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Default Re: Finding new ideas before they become \"big\"

A bit OT, but 7 years ago, I found casino bonuses by the way of fatwallet. The casino section was spun off to fatbonus.com (now defunct). Those were some pretty sweet days but nothing like rakebacks. I didn't cash in on rakebacks either. Only a tiny bit on friends that played poker. Sportsbook bonus/arb was pretty lucrative back then as well.

I feel that the quality of TC articles has gone down the hill in the last few months. I now look more at mashable.com but it's a narrower niche, and a few other tech blogs. Guy Kiwosaki's blog is also pretty interesting.
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