Biggest story of our time: our self-extinction by Mark Steyn

[Rick Nebiolo]

This article posted just before Christmas touches on a theme that has been discussed here before; that is the Western World isn't reproducing at a rate capable of sustaining population without massive immigration. The new film "Children of Men" portrays one version of the impact of a childless world.

Meanwhile you can look at this chart form the Wikipedia. Note that the birthrate needed to sustain population is 2.1 or so (at least in the Western World where we have good medicine). The United States, one of the least secular Western countries, has a stable birth rate. But look at some of the other advanced countries. Although I don't have strong faith in God these days it does seem that religion promotes fertility. And Secular Europe is getting less and less fertile. For example, look at the numbers for countries like Italy and Japan. Will Italians exist in Italy in fifty years? Will Japan finally start allowing immigrants?

Sitting in traffic on the 405 I doubt you would worry about this, but these numbers are scary. I hope to find the film Children of Men and see it soon.

Also found this Wiki on Sub Replacement Fertility

~ Rick

[madnak]

This is not an issue.

Those who have lots of children will tend to propagate, those who have few children will not. This "problem" is self-correcting. Right now the population may be shrinking, but as those who decide not to have children are removed from the gene pool, those who want to reproduce will very quickly grow in proportion. Moreover, as the population shrinks the incentives for having children grow.

[Copernicus]

If you view a "nationality" as a species, it is subject to the same Darwinian effects as a true species. If reproduction of a species is at insufficient rates to replace those dying, it will become extinct.

Normally in nature it is superior predators or extreme environmental disruption that depresses the fertility rate, since every species that have evolved has sufficient reproductive capabilities to sustain itself.

In the case of nationality the equivalent of environmental disruption is ultimately contraception. That is why, imo, you find correlation between the decline in Western religions and drops in the birth rate. Western religions were predominantly anti-contraception, and between the relaxation of those rules and the decline in religion overall the birth rate no longer sustains the nationality.

Even in the US the birth rate is insufficient to sustain what was the "majority", those of European descent. The highest birthrates are among those who are unable to afford or are uneducated about contraception. (Which is one of the primary reasons for the higher infant mortality rate in the US, not the healthcare system).

Zero Population Growth movements were nearly universal amongst the developed nations in the 60s. When the same practices arent followed by other segments of the world population, obviously the latter groups will prosper, and overtake the former.

So how does it end? There are only three scenarios that seem likely.

--Very few "nationalities" survive, ultimately leaving Asian and Muslim populations (yes, I know "Muslim" isnt a nationality, you get the point).

--2. Awareness of the situation causes populations to return to self-sustaining birth rates.

--3. The "threat to the species" causes threatened populations to either become predators against the thriving populations, or to alter the environment of the thriving populations so they no longer have overwhelming population growth.

[iron81]

The European countries are aware of this and are trying to do something about it. The governments are spending a lot of money on child care and tax breaks to incentivize people to have kids.

[canis582]

Maybe there should be some sort of compulsory breeding of our smartest, most athletic citizens?

[madnak]

In other words, there won't be any white people? Oh my God, what a horrible crisis. How will the human race survive?

Look, I'm of 100% European descent, British, Scottish, Danish, and some other northern [censored] barbarians. But thankfully I'm not an ethnic elitist. And if I were - eh, let's face it. I'm all about barbarian pride, but the civilized people were always brown. And with mixing populations it's inevitable - everyone's going to be some shade of mulatto.

That's a bad thing why?

[madnak]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe there should be some sort of compulsory breeding of our smartest, most athletic citizens?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never can tell with you, canis.

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, there won't be any white people? Oh my God, what a horrible crisis. How will the human race survive?

Look, I'm of 100% European descent, British, Scottish, Danish, and some other northern [censored] barbarians. But thankfully I'm not an ethnic elitist. And if I were - eh, let's face it. I'm all about barbarian pride, but the civilized people were always brown. And with mixing populations it's inevitable - everyone's going to be some shade of mulatto.

That's a bad thing why?

[/ QUOTE ]

OMG, dont you know diversity is a good thing?

"Civlized people were always brown" Huh?

[HeavilyArmed]

[ QUOTE ]
In other words, there won't be any white people? Oh my God, what a horrible crisis. How will the human race survive in the style to which it has become accustomed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Still waiting for the Islamic car, the African iPod and the Mexican Mars mission.

[bdk3clash]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In other words, there won't be any white people? Oh my God, what a horrible crisis. How will the human race survive in the style to which it has become accustomed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Still waiting for the Islamic car, the African iPod and the Mexican Mars mission.

[/ QUOTE ]
What do you mean by this?