TTWO

[Shoe]

I am not ready to issue a buy on this stock, but I think it will be a buy in the near future, here is why.

TTWO has tanked approximately 18% in after-hours trading to ~13.75/share on news that GTA4 has been delayed. I expect it to continue to drop over the next few days. After that, I think it will be a great value buy.

Why?

1. Civ IV is still selling good, and the latest expansion, Beyond the Sword, has been selling like hotcakes, and has been amongst the top amazon video game top sellers list since release.

2. GTA4 is going to be a huge hit when it comes out. GTA4 was priced into their stock, and I imagine that their stock will rebound completely by the time the game is released, or soon after. Unfortunately, that is all the analysis I have at this time, you have more to add or agree/disagree, I would love to hear it.

3. Their sports games, while not quite as good as EA (in public opinion) have been gaining ground. They recently released a football game with a player resembling Vick (customized in appearance, with the #7 and Vick written on the back of the jersery). If they could come out with a football game that did not violoate the NFL license agreement, but at the same time, had an easily downloadable mod, with all the current rosters/players/stats of the NFL that players could use to convert the release version to actual NFL players, I think their NFL game would take off. I don't know if they are actually planning this or not, but it would be huge if they pulled it off. I am not pricing this possiblity into their future stock price as I consider it unlikely. This company has always been a one-hit wonder (GTA) but now they are a 2-hit wonder with the acquisition of the Civilization series. With great success of Beyond the Swords, and the future success of GTA4 that was just discounted from this stock, I think it will be a buy after it bottoms out in the next week or so.

Some people might call me insane, but if you buy while others run away screaming, you often are getting a good deal.

[Shoe]

Also, just wanted to add.

I don't think they are going to make any less money on GTA4 just because it is being delayed a few months.

I can see how investors are upset, but de-value the company by 20%+ (plus whatever else it goes down over the next few days) just because future cash flow are going to be delayed by a few months (but they are still going to get the same amount of cash flow from this game despite the delay) seems ridiculous to me.

If anyone can enlighten me to something I am not seeing, please do. Thanks.

I also do not see this company going above $20/share even if it rebounds with a highly successful release, sell if it gets to that point.

Also -- manhunt2 got delayed which I did not price at all into the current decision, but I feel all of the current movement has to do with the GTA4 delay and nothing to do with manhunt2 -- which when it comes out should help the stock rebound as well.

[emon87]

OK, I know I have eben giving you a lot of crap but I think that discussions of individual stocks are interesting. So. You NEED to get more in depth with your analysis if anyone is going to take you seriously. Like look at PE ratios, and say what they are, why they're off. Don't just toss out your gut feelings.