I Am Legend - movie betting

[llabb]

Apparently Matchbook opened a market for the upcoming "I Am Legend" movie. Some of us on here used to bet movies regularly back when a lot more sites offered lines.

This should be a big movie, but the line is already really high. A $50 million line is asking a lot, like summer blockbuster levels.

The last movie to break $50 million was way back in August, the Bourne Ultimatum. Summer blockbusters can readily break this mark, but it's really tough for a December movie not named The Lord of the Rings.

What do you guys think about this one? Anyone here going to bet this movie?

[stereoman]

Movies opening on December 14th are I Am Legend, Juno, The Kite Runner, The Perfect Holiday and Alvin and the Chipmunks.

Early tracking doesn't seem to be particularly high at the moment suggesting that IAL will open to $43 million (I grabbed that number from Box office Mojo via the Hollywood Stock Exchange).

It has a kind of an I, Robot feel to it and that opened to $52.1 million back in July 2004.

Will Smith action movies generally don't appear in December but last year, The Pursuit of Happyness had a $26.5 million opening weekend.

[ThomasSly]

This movie looks interesting, and the campain of publicity was quite big, i remember seeing preview of this at least 3 months back.

I would say it's gonna open at least at 40m.

[llabb]

Yeah, I think this movie will do well, and that somewhere in the $40's sounds good. I mean, a 40+ million dollar opening is pretty huge in Dec. It's $50m that's questionable, but that's where the line is.

If people think that $40's is likely, then there may be a play on Under 50.

[darko3131]

$50 million for a Dec. opening? Without doing any research my gut just says under, way under. Beowulf had tons of marketing and got very solid reviews and only did $27. Why would Legend do twice as much?

[llabb]

Yeah, that's the question. A number of offers on Matchbook. You can even get the Under at +102 right now.