2-7 TD the presence of a second hand

[NYplayer]

I just worked out in a speadsheet the chances of making a 7 by the river if you start with a 2-3-7. I came up with 20.61%. so basically if you take a 2,3 and 7 out of the deck and draw 3 doing your best to make 7 low that's how often you make it. then decided to check it against two dimes. I decided to do it by making my 2-3-7 have to beat a #5 (the best 8) that way i would be insured a 7. here is the result

http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=l27&b=&...2c+3h+4c+5c+8c

to my surprise my equity is only 3.8%. this must be because the other hand has some of the cards i need no? so does this mean that when we are drawing against another player who is drawing 1 we are in worse shape than strict odds suggest? and if we're against 2 players drawing 1 we are in really bad shape? i though 2-3-7 was good [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Notorious G.O.B.]

You checked it on the kansas city calculator, which is the same as the odds going into the last draw. Is that what you meant to do?

[DeathDonkey]

If they have a #5 and those cards are dead the math sounds right to me from experience, you are a huge dog. But realize in the examples you gave at the end your opponents are drawing as well. Now you just have to beat whatever hand they end up with which isn't nearly as difficult. I don't see how your analysis of drawing two cards against a #5 leads to the conclusion that you are in awful shape against one or two opponents drawing one. The situations are very different. That said, for me, 237 is either a crying call for one bet or a muck for two bets if I brick off after the first draw in multiway pots when at least one opponent is drawing one.

-DeathDonkey

[NYplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
You checked it on the kansas city calculator, which is the same as the odds going into the last draw. Is that what you meant to do?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i wanted to run it with 3 draws.

[Notorious G.O.B.]

Okay, I did the rough math for you, here you go:

about 12.7% of the time, you catch one card, than proceed to improve to a pat hand on the next draw.
about 9.1% of the time, you catch one card on the first round don't improve on the next round, then catch it on the river.
about 8% of the time, you catch nothing on draw one, catch one card on draw 2, and make it on the river.
about 3.08 % of the time you draw two perfect cards and are pat after the first round.
And about 1.75% of the time, you catch nothing on the first draw, then make a pat hand on the second draw. I decided not to include the odds of catching nothing on the first and second draw, and making on the river, since it doesn't seem like you'd ever make it that far. So that all adds up to about 34.63%, which seems about right to me, I guess. Someone want to check this over, I know it isn't exact, btw.

[MarkGritter]

Twodimes is just a single-draw calculator, unfortunately.

My own multi-draw tool says that you have a 21.6% chance of making a 7 if you start with 723KK. (I think the difference is probably due to the extra two dead bricks I assumed, but my software could have an error, too.)

If you are up against 85432 with 732KK it looks like the chances of making a 7 decrease only slightly, to about 20%. (You lose two outs but there are five fewer unknown cards, three of which don't help you.) You are actually worse off against 86542 because it kills three outs.

I submitted an article to the magazine this month pn the question you raise, about adjusting for your opponent possibly holding some of your outs.