Play a Hand With the Masters #1 Turn

[MrMoo]

I agree it's tight and weak. I thought long and hard though and I just can't find a line I like better. I really don't like a raise here. A call if VERY close but I just don't think we're getting paid off too much if we hit our flush or straight.

[Exitonly]

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I am thinking my answer right now, even said that, is to shove. I'm not sure if they will call with 2 pair or not, but I'm just not seeing enough value in hitting our hand on the river to justify flatcalling and other than possibly the confusing minraise here any other raise other than allin doesn't seem right.

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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.

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dunnow where you got 5:1 dog vs a straight.. you're 3:1 then.

and a few people mention folding because you only invested 600, that really shouldn't be a consideration, you should just decide what the most profitable move from this point on is, regardless of what you put in already.

The pot is giving you 2.2:1 odds, or enough to make calling profitable, even if we don't get paid off more on furthur streets.. i like raising beccause it adds a new way to win the hand, i think pushing looks a bit fishy here, but i guess it could get more hands to fold than a 5k raise.. but seems like overkill.

[Rduke55]

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I just don't think we're getting paid off too much if we hit our flush or straight.

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That's why we raise now.

[grandgnu]

This is why I advocated betting on the flop, we'd have a better idea where we stand, and we might've gotten a free card on the turn.

Instead we're stuck in a situation where we aren't really sure what to do. We've got a monster draw, that if it hits we're likely to have the best hand (straight or flush, provided the board doesn't pair)

But if we opt to raise, it will need to be to at least 4-5K, and then if we get smooth-called we must hit the river (or push with nothing if checked to) given the huge amount of chips in play.

If we get pushed against when we re-raise, are we going to just surrender half our stack, or take the risk and try to hit or go home?

If we smooth-call, as long as the SB doesn't come over the top, we're looking at a pot with 1950+1500+1500=4,950, which is half everyones starting stack.

It's likely that the CO will push all-in to try and take it down on the river, and he might be pushing into our rivered monster, so we have a shot to get all his chips.

But since this hand wasn't played as I recommended, I believe a smooth-call allows us to get away on the river with enough chips to continue playing in this tournament. But I still don't fault a re-raise, just be ready to commit all of your chips on this draw, which could've been avoided by a continuation bet on the flop.

[bugstud]

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Are you going to pick up the pot enough by pushing to make up for being a 2-1 underdog when called? You are a 5-1 underdog against a straight and about 2-1 versus a pair, 2 pair, or a set.



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you've got these numbers messed up. I believe my post covered most of it, but I don't think his range has a high %age of calling hands in it. IF you think his range is really weighted towards strong hands then your implied odds are much higher because many of them are paying off money on the river, but if you think the range is less strong then you don't get to make much on the river. Just my take on it.


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I don't think CO is bluffing betting into 2 players on a QT93 2-flush board.

You may win the pot a lot with a raise or push, but if you are called or reraised, you are almost certainly atleast a 5-3 underdog. A straight flush draw is way behind a pair on the turn. You could get called by a pair plus flush draw, but if you get action you are probably atleast a 2-1 dog. This is too dangerous a board to semibluff at. It is too likely someone has something.

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if you lead in CO's shoes with t9s here and button shoves, you're sick

[schwza]

i advocated raise to 5k now and the last ~5k on any river. do you think that line is more likely to fold out T9?

[bugstud]

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i advocated raise to 5k now and the last ~5k on any river. do you think that line is more likely to fold out T9?

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I think few are calling 5k to fold the river here imo.

[adanthar]

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if you lead in CO's shoes with t9s here and button shoves, you're sick

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Eh? I think 'oh, he picked up a draw or has AQ' and push. Other than KJ, there's nothing you have right now that the CO's behind in this situation. I assume CO's read on you is at least 'decent', and a decent player doesn't play QT/QQ/a set this way on that flop.

I think MJ can now be considered out of this hand (so much for my guess) - if you just call and he overcalls, great (because any draw he can have is second best) but it's not important. So it's you vs. the CO. It's reasonably safe to say your pair outs are nearly worthless, and also reasonably safe to say he doesn't open limp KJ, so you have 15 outs.

Folding's out of the question. Raising depends on your read, but God does this board suck for a bluff right now. I think I just call.

[MrMoo]

So whats your play when the CO comes over the top and puts you all in?

When I put myself in the CO's shoes, if I saw your play and you raised the turn I'd be putting you all in most of the time, regardless of my cards. Your raise just doesn't add up. If I was the cutoff I'd put you on a flush draw or AQ. Both of which you'd likely fold to a push. I don't want to be in that situation so I either call or fold.

[Toro]

CO's bet (with the big stack) smells like "no one is interested in this pot, let me see if I can pick it off with a bet". I'm more concerned with MJ, but I like the raise to 5000.