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  #161  
Old 11-20-2007, 12:57 AM
Triumph36 Triumph36 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

To me, Garth Snow has done a tremendous job the past two years of identifying players with NHL skills but whom have nearly fallen out of the league for one reason or another. Last season he snapped up Viktor Kozlov as basically a shootout specialist, and Kozlov ended up turning in the best season he's had since Pavel Bure left the Panthers. This season it's Josef Vasicek, who always had a ton of skill, but could never seem to put it all together. Throw in guys who've practically made a career out of that (Comrie, Guerin, Satan, Hunter), and with the right coach and some luck, they can win games.

The Islanders had a similar start last year - and then collapsed and basically backdoored their way into the playoffs. I expect something similar to occur - that defense is a patchwork almost as bad as New Jersey's, but none of their guys are hurt. I do think they will outperform their Pythag expectations, though - that's Nolan and DiPietro.
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  #162  
Old 11-20-2007, 03:04 PM
Sunny Mehta Sunny Mehta is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
I do think they will outperform their Pythag expectations, though - that's Nolan and DiPietro.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not be surprised if they did either, but that's IF they do it with stellar defense and goaltending - which they really haven't this year (DiPietro hasn't been very good).

I will say this - Pythag expectations get a little haywire in hockey, mostly 'cause of this ridiculous overtime system. (I.e. - some games featuring 3 total points being awarded, instead of 2.) In theory, a team that tied every game in regulation would end up being WAY better than their expected .500 w% due to OT/SO. (Even if they had a worse than average chance of winning in OT/SO, say 40 percent, that projects to like a 115pt season!) Take a look at the Devils last season - way outperformed their goal diff due to so many OT/SO wins.

So that's the first thing - if we assume a very defensive low-scoring team is more likely to be tied after regulation, that's a big benefit to them points-wise. Particularly if they have a good goaltender who will expect to fare well in a shootout. (See the Rangers this year - I almost guarantee they'll outperform their Pythag.)

The other thing is that defensive teams in general sometimes outperform their goal diff even just in regulation. This is definitely contentious, but I have two possible explanations:

1. Technically, a team that wins 2-1 has won by a bigger "margin" than a team who wins 6-5. (I.e. - The former team has won by 100 percent whereas the latter only by 20 percent.)

2. Teams that are low in both goals for and goals against are subject to more variance than a team with a higher differential. (<-- This is probably what's really going on.)
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  #163  
Old 11-20-2007, 06:46 PM
daman123 daman123 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

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I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you should ask that..... link



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Good, now I can sleep at night.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay you have 43 GF and 37 GA for the Rangers and 43 GF and 44 GA for the Islanders. I'll take 3 wins and 0 losses vs the Rangers and I guess we're both happy.

Seriously though, those stats don't mean a whole lot. The season is too young. One loss they had was 8-1 vs Toronto while starting Doobie and the other was 8-3 to a very good Carolina team. Other than those games they have been playing well.

triumph, do you really think this is a bad defense?

campoli, bergeron, berard, witt, sutton, martinek. i would say that it's fairly solid.
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  #164  
Old 11-20-2007, 07:31 PM
Triumph36 Triumph36 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you should ask that..... link



[/ QUOTE ]

Good, now I can sleep at night.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay you have 43 GF and 37 GA for the Rangers and 43 GF and 44 GA for the Islanders. I'll take 3 wins and 0 losses vs the Rangers and I guess we're both happy.

Seriously though, those stats don't mean a whole lot. The season is too young. One loss they had was 8-1 vs Toronto while starting Doobie and the other was 8-3 to a very good Carolina team. Other than those games they have been playing well.

triumph, do you really think this is a bad defense?

campoli, bergeron, berard, witt, sutton, martinek. i would say that it's fairly solid.

[/ QUOTE ]

bergeron and berard barely belong in the NHL - they are absolutely terrible at defending. bruno gervais has been playing over MA Bergeron.

andy sutton is decent but takes a lot of penalties. i've always liked radek martinek but he is inconsistent. campoli is meh. bruno gervais isn't very good. brendan witt has done a good job remaking his game - he still takes a lot of penalties.

really, it's not that good.
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  #165  
Old 11-21-2007, 10:41 PM
g-bebe g-bebe is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!
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  #166  
Old 11-21-2007, 11:29 PM
Triumph36 Triumph36 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Atlanta jerseys didn't look like a periwinkle nightmare, I might.

I like Kovalchuk a lot and hope he ends up on a non-Atlantic Division winner someday - this hot streak is a real shame for Atlanta fans, because Don Waddell needs to be fired ASAP.
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  #167  
Old 11-21-2007, 11:57 PM
g-bebe g-bebe is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!

[/ QUOTE ]

If the Atlanta jerseys didn't look like a periwinkle nightmare, I might.

I like Kovalchuk a lot and hope he ends up on a non-Atlantic Division winner someday - this hot streak is a real shame for Atlanta fans, because Don Waddell needs to be fired ASAP.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not TOO familiar with the situation. I know they fired their head coach, his name eludes me right now but Don Waddell is the GM-acting-head coach right now, correct? What's the word on who is next in line?

I just get the feeling that when Lehtonen comes back, Atlanta will hit a slump. I group him with Fleury -- young goalies who have talent, yet haven't really shown it with consistency yet. Moose is playing really well right now, and always has from a backup role. I think disturbing it, whenever that happens, could be a bad thing
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  #168  
Old 11-23-2007, 11:31 PM
Triumph36 Triumph36 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

Someone remind Atlanta they have a game tonight.

Oh, it's too late? Oh well.

Tonight was exhibit A why I think the Thrashers are just not very good. Enstrom can run a power play but he's a turnover machine, I love Kovalchuk and Hossa, but beyond that it's mostly chopped liver, and the team doesn't bring a consistent effort every night.

I wish I still had NHL Center Ice because the Thrashers were one of my favorite teams to watch and root for - but this year is not their year.
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  #169  
Old 11-24-2007, 01:23 AM
Sunny Mehta Sunny Mehta is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
Someone remind Atlanta they have a game tonight.

Oh, it's too late? Oh well.

Tonight was exhibit A why I think the Thrashers are just not very good. Enstrom can run a power play but he's a turnover machine, I love Kovalchuk and Hossa, but beyond that it's mostly chopped liver, and the team doesn't bring a consistent effort every night.

I wish I still had NHL Center Ice because the Thrashers were one of my favorite teams to watch and root for - but this year is not their year.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, but having said that, the Devils looked like the defensive force of old tonight. is it me or have they returned to a more defensive-oriented system over the last few games? tonight they allowed only 22 shots, and it looked like they weren't forechecking very aggressively even in the first period when it was 0-0. i've only noticed it for the last two games, so it could be either that:

a) they decided to go with a particular gameplan against Pitt and Atl (both teams fairly one-dimensional with a big disparity in talent from their top weapons to their core)

b) they decided to permanently shy back towards a more defensive style

c) they are just playing well and "clicking" better positionally

not sure what the exact deal is.....but it also helps when Marty gives you this:

.961 Sv% over his last four games

Devs have won three in a row and are back to .500 for the first time this season....one hockey stat guy (I forget which one), at the end of the season, basically discards the first 20 games of the season when looking at team stats because he believes NHL teams change so much from the beginning of the season to the end.....interesting....
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  #170  
Old 11-30-2007, 10:56 PM
Triumph36 Triumph36 is offline
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Default Re: ***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Someone remind Atlanta they have a game tonight.

Oh, it's too late? Oh well.

Tonight was exhibit A why I think the Thrashers are just not very good. Enstrom can run a power play but he's a turnover machine, I love Kovalchuk and Hossa, but beyond that it's mostly chopped liver, and the team doesn't bring a consistent effort every night.

I wish I still had NHL Center Ice because the Thrashers were one of my favorite teams to watch and root for - but this year is not their year.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, but having said that, the Devils looked like the defensive force of old tonight. is it me or have they returned to a more defensive-oriented system over the last few games? tonight they allowed only 22 shots, and it looked like they weren't forechecking very aggressively even in the first period when it was 0-0. i've only noticed it for the last two games, so it could be either that:

a) they decided to go with a particular gameplan against Pitt and Atl (both teams fairly one-dimensional with a big disparity in talent from their top weapons to their core)

b) they decided to permanently shy back towards a more defensive style

c) they are just playing well and "clicking" better positionally

not sure what the exact deal is.....but it also helps when Marty gives you this:

.961 Sv% over his last four games

Devs have won three in a row and are back to .500 for the first time this season....one hockey stat guy (I forget which one), at the end of the season, basically discards the first 20 games of the season when looking at team stats because he believes NHL teams change so much from the beginning of the season to the end.....interesting....

[/ QUOTE ]

how do i surf this forum compulsively and miss this post? I agree with a great deal of it, especially discarding the first 20 games - I wish I weren't so lazy, otherwise I'd research free agent performance for the first half of seasons dating back to the beginning of the last CBA (1995). I think I'd find that that performance is generally down compared to their previous season and their next season.

anyway, bump for NJ's 6th win in a row - and yes, they are playing more 'trap' hockey lately, although it's helped that they're actually getting leads in games.

Reports of New Jersey's demise were greatly exaggerated. Colin White has played tremendous and Paul Martin has jumped right up to play some terrific defensive hockey as well.
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