Rate this bluff 10/20

[emil3000]

Opponent is defenitlyhot on the OnGame network. He is IMO very good, aggro, reads hands well, pretty tricky. We have some history with bluffs and stuff, and he has been getting the better of me (though honestly he's probably held over me as well). This session I've already stacked him once after flatting his button raise from BB with 99, CR 723 twotone flop and getting it in against his 75. So he doesn't give me a ton of credit.

Anyway stacks are like 2,7k but not too relevant.

4handed, he limps SB, I make it 60 with K8o, he calls. Flop is A92 rainbow, he checkcalls 100. Turn is an 8 which brings a flushdraw, check check. River is an offsuit 7. He bets 202 into 320 , I raise to 750.

Thoughts?

[xorbie]

poo poo

[xorbie]

just call is better because the only hands he folds are worse, unless he has 9x a ton.

[emil3000]

So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[acdcaces]

What did u put him on when u raised him? a weak ace, a nine? I think its totally a call or fold but not to sure what he could have that he calls the flop with and bluffs the river, maybe a wheel gutter. Your call % should be about the same with k high as a pair of eights. 2 things i'd have to know about him to make a better decision: Is he tricky enough to call the flop with complete air, just to bluff on a later street? And do you think he'd limp 22 here? I'm very curious about the results here. And to answer your question i'd give your bluff a 4/10 because i really don't see him having a 9 here and you look very weak.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't need a very strong hand to call here.

[jj12]

I think this is fine. If he is smart and you have a lot of history you have to mix it up and bluff in this spot. A lot of guys autocall an ace here but he sounds like a guy against whom this move makes sense.

[xorbie]

Honestly wtf are you guys putting him on that this is a good move? He basically never (imo) has TT-KK here, he rarely has 9x, he's not folding an A most of the time, and if he's a good hand reader he actually might 3bet bluff you here with worse.

Keep in mind we do have a very good pair on this board, all things considered.

[jj12]

xorbie it is obvious that villain's hand is an ace 80% of the time. Villain knows that we know that. In this situation we need to be bluffing against a thinking villain. If we never bluff he can lay down the ace when we raise.

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
So anyway IMO there are two good thinigs about this bluff.
1. He doesn't have a very strong hand here most likely.
2. Noone ever bluffs in these spots, which he knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I am not sure if it is EV+ in a vacuum but it is certainly not bad.