*** Official joining every $4/180man until I win one ***

[Sherman]

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So to have 50% chance of winning (at least) one tournament in a completely random universe (which doesn't seem too far off when it comes to $4.40 buy-ins) you have to play a little more than 124 of them.

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This is suggesting that I'm approximately 50% to win one if I play 124 in a row? That sounds about right.

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It's right if you really suck...somehow I doubt you do.

IMO, you ought to be able to win 1 in 90-150 on average.