NL 50: check my sanity. this an easy fold?

[Pokerdemic]

villain is 25/15/2 over about 25. He insta-shoved the turn, and I was wondering about his timing. I was thinking an OESD that paired on the turn. Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $25.50
BB: $55.45
UTG: $15.40
MP: $56.30
Hero (CO): $64.95
BTN: $51.55

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $12</font>, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($28.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $37.55 and is All-In</font>, Hero ?

[Khaos4k]

This looks like a big hand that really doesn't want draws to hit. I say set/2 pair at least. If he's on a draw, he's got position and can see a free card.

I'd play this the same way as button with a set/2 pair. The reason for the overbet is that a PSB leaves only $10 on the river. Same with a $20 only leaving $20 on the river. Gives far too good implied odds to draws.

[doppelganger]

I'm thinking 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but whatever it is I think it's an easy fold.

Edit: Set of 8's or T's makes sense too, also A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[Profish2285]

What are everyone's thought on the flop as well? Do we call here or is there a case for pushing? Im not sure what calling does here as there are a ton of bad turn cards, as we just saw. I think this is a flop I either push or fold.

[doppelganger]

[ QUOTE ]
What are everyone's thought on the flop as well? Do we call here or is there a case for pushing? Im not sure what calling does here as there are a ton of bad turn cards, as we just saw. I think this is a flop I either push or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think against a reasonable villain shoving allows him to play perfectly and get away from any hands we beat. If he was a maniac spew monkey it would be a different story.

[Profish2285]

It seems like by just calling here though, we have to fold turn on a J, Q, A, 9, and Diamond.

[doppelganger]

True, but I think sometimes that's just the nature of playing a TP hand OOP against an opponent we respect.

Take a look at Matrix's AJ hand. It's a very similar flop situation, but a completely different villain. I think in his hand an overbet shove is justified. (And is the overwhelming consensus.)

Is a shove justified here? Maybe it is, I'm not too sure. Come to think of it, if a good villain flopped a set he's not going to minraise on such a drawy board. So actually it is looking more like a draw. (Unless he's trying to bait us into a push.) Bah! Levels...

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[whyherro]

Might 3 bet this flop, not entirely sure.

Other approach is to call and lead out a turn if it bricks.

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm thinking 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but whatever it is I think it's an easy fold.

Edit: Set of 8's or T's makes sense too, also A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
i think that's way too narrow of a range. you're putting him on a hand that is totally murdering the board, and if i have 79dd there i'm probably going to be fine with you chasing against me because if you have a set, you're going to be raising, if you have AQ, you're going to be raising, and if for some reason you happen to have a better flush draw you're drawing really thin.

i think the turn is irrelevant though here. there aren't really many turn or river cards that are going to improve you very much against hands in his range (though, over 25 hands his range could be anything). so basically you need to plan the hand out on the flop. i don't think you can flat call his raise on the flop unless you're fine with playing for stacks. if you aren't, fold. if you think (based off the limited hands you have) he would make a play like this with KQ (which is entirely possible given the board and action), raise the flop and be fine with getting it all in.

[bknollenberg]

oh, and bet bigger on the flop. your bet looks weak and i raise bets like that a lot with total air because if you flat call i'm doing exactly what he did and taking it on the turn.