My river play bothers me

[BadBigBabar]

here's another link

http://poker.wikia.com/wiki/MicroLim...er.27s_Theorem

whee

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
many times he simply folds his hand here. Sometimes he calls and wins. (Yes he sees the straight but can he fold anything that beats us?) Sometimes he raises and we have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem, Bona, as usual, is that we don't want to give him the chance to check behind the relatively large number of hands that he would call a bet weith that we can beat. Add to that the small but non-zero percentage of his folds that will be better hands than ours, and we want to bet. We're about a 3:2 dog to other aces (a little better, actually, since some of the ones we're worried about are aces-up, putting one of the cards on the board), so really we only need him to fold to our bet (rightly or wrongly) 15% of the time to make the 55% threshold.

Edit: Babar, both those links go to the same thread, which is the same thread that Mitke linked. postcount++ on a delay-my-x000th-post account?

[OrigamiSensei]

[ QUOTE ]
How deep is your read on MP2? Even a 6 PFR is going to pop this with AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/88-99/etc...you need to 3bang this preflop.

On the flop, I'd have bet out. A rock is going to check behind you with 99-KK on an ace-high flop, but might peel. When you got lucky and BB bet it for you, then your c/r was goot.

Turn standard.

River is an easy bet; only check against an aggro vill that will bet if you "show weakness". If Villan is truly passive post, then you can fold to a raise, otherwise just call. Remember, he can see the straight, too.

[/ QUOTE ]
As usual boz strikes right to the heart of my concerns. Pre-flop probably is a 3-bet despite MP2 being tighter than usual since I'm in good shape against anything but AA/KK/QQ/AK which is certainly less than half of his range. I believe he would raise 88+/AT+/KJ+ in this position. Had I 3-bet BB might not have seen the flop but then again he was loose enough he just might have.

Likewise I feel I got a bit lucky on the flop. My style of late has been to lead out more often but in this case I thought MP2 was aggressive enough to c-bet it since BB was playing fairly loose and my table image was fairly uncertain at that point. When villain bet the flop, called my c/r and called my turn bet I put him squarely on a lower ace.

I'm still torn about the river. I did indeed bet it but stupidly I called villain's raise only to be shown he hit his gutshot on the river. The reason I'm still conflicted over the river bet is I'm not sure I'm ahead enough of the time. As I noted in the OP six out of ten lower ace holdings beat me. However, I do have to take into account that calling my flop check-raise and turn bet rather than hitting me again probably indicated that he did not have two pair on the flop or turn so I guess I could have reduced the probability of those holdings. So if we eliminate A7/A5/A4 from his holdings I guess that indicates I'm behind A8/A6/A3 on the river but still ahead of AJ/AT/A9/A2, which looks somewhat more favorable to the river bet-fold option.

As for clarkmeister, that only applies to the very specific case of a four-flush on the board with no flush cards in the OOP hand and does not apply here.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
MP2 was aggressive enough to c-bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you need to modify your read. A rock will not cbet-cbet.

[ QUOTE ]
As for clarkmeister, that only applies to the very specific case of a four-flush on the board with no flush cards in the OOP hand and does not apply here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true.

[BadBigBabar]

hi boz, the one link goes to the poker wiki thing which i thought was a micros favorite, and for the other i just googled clarkmeister. thanks for being extremely vigilant as always.

[BadBigBabar]

and boz, it's okay to say that you're unclear on what a clarkmeister is, instead of just posting "no" a lot and attempting to sound authoritative (apologies for outing your m.o., btw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ). i'm willing to admit that the definition i held was partially incorrect.

[Xylocain]

Whats with all the bruised egos in the micros lately?

FWIW Boz is right, a Clarkmeister is not a relentless bluff with ATC OOP on a 4-flush board.

Its a value-bluff OOP that benefits from fold equity on a scary board with a hand that has showdown value.

[Bona]

OK but, realistically, what does villain fold here that beats us?

[Xylocain]

I think its more a matter of what he raises that we beat, which I think is nothing. So if we intend to call, we might as well bet. Villan is not folding anything on this board ever. Or something like that.

[BadBigBabar]

bona, imo, nothing, because it's not clarkmeister [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] i see this river bet as a value bet. if we get raised, i'd have a tough decision to make.

and xylo, sick cribbing job there