Overcards hand from review session

OrigamiSensei · #1 06-07-2006, 01:50 PM

First of all I want to thank writser for taking the time to review my hands. He did a good work and I value his input. This is a hand where we differed in opinion on postflop play and I'd like others to weigh in with the hope that I learn something.

Ultimate Bet 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: OrigamiSensei is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, OrigamiSensei calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, OrigamiSensei checks.

Here's our conversation on the hand:

--- WRITSER: I'd bet on the flop to get some donks out and to buy a freecard on the turn. Getting C/R'd would suck though, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.

OS SEZ> I'm getting my free card now. Why should I "buy" one with such a marginal hand? Getting c/r'd would REALLY suck in this case when all I have is a gutshot and two crappy overs. (Late note: and a crappy BDFD)

-- WRITSER: I tend to disagree. With this bet, you can see the river for 1 small bet, you buy yourself outs AND you might even pick up the pot right here.Yes, getting C/R'd sucks but that doesn't happen a lot at these limit. If you check, someone IS going to donk the turn and then you don't have the odds to call.

With fewer opponents, say 2 or 3, I think writser has a point. With 6 opponents I can't imagine doing anything but taking the free card and getting the heck out if I don't improve on the turn.

Discuss.

MrWookie · #2 06-07-2006, 01:53 PM

This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

davelin · #3 06-07-2006, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

[/ QUOTE ]

johnnytt · #4 06-07-2006, 01:59 PM

I dont bet into a field that big. Check and hope for the the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the turn.

Aaron W. · #5 06-07-2006, 02:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This field is too large to bet at. I like the check.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll add that I hate the bet. Risking putting in two bets with a weak draw for maybe a chance at a free card on the turn is a stupid thing to do.

Hielko · #6 06-07-2006, 02:24 PM

It's 7 handed, nobody is going to fold. A bet will also not clear your outs since I doubt that someone with AQ/AJ/KJ will fold. Your draw is also very weak, so check and hope to catch something on the turn (and then hope that it is enough to win the pot).

tiltaholic · #7 06-07-2006, 03:04 PM

i don't hate betting the flop, actually.

we have a lot of outs and there are so many opponents that we might be betting for value if most of them are inclined to call.

Hielko · #8 06-07-2006, 03:10 PM

How much outs do you think we have on average tiltaholic?

tiltaholic · #9 06-07-2006, 03:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
How much outs do you think we have on average tiltaholic?

[/ QUOTE ]

something like 8? maybe that's optimistic?
i doubt we're getting checkraised and we obviously don't need to bet the turn.

Hielko · #10 06-07-2006, 03:56 PM

I think that is optimistic.

You have 4 outs for a straight, but there is a 2 flush on the board. So 1 out needs to be seriously discounted and the other outs also need to be discounted a bit since you cuold hit on the turn to loose on the river. I think 3 outs for the straight draw is reasonable.

You have two overcards. If you hit them you could loose from a flush, straight, better toppair, two pair, overpair on the river, something else... I really really don't like these outs, perhaps something like 2 + perhaps a little bit outs on average?

Hmmmmm.... it isn't looking as bad as I originally thought 5/6 outs isn't bad in a semi-large 7 handed pot. The longer I think about it, the more I start liking a bet. It seems that our equity is ok. so a bet isn't going to cost us a lot of money.

So if it results in folding the A or K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] it's probably already +ev, if someone folds KJ that would be great and even when you will get a freecard in just 30% of all cases I think it's ok.