Pre-flop decision with poster

[OrigamiSensei]

This one is from a recent session review, who played this hand. The reason I'm posting it is because I'd like to see if I'm doing the right type of thinking about these sorts of situations. Sort of a "defend yourself" hand posting.

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 Villain raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Poster (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero ???.

The pre-flop raiser is a 13/9 type and the table has been playing somewhat tight in response to early raisers.

The reviewee chose to fold the hand, and despite the tone of my comments that is certainly a very defensible choice. However, this is a hand I want to play and if I am to play it I think a 3-bet is the way to go. Here are my original comments:

OrigamiSensei sez&gt; Not only is this not a fold, this is a 3-bet! You have a raiser who is a 13/9 meaning that he simply doesn't limp that often, even from early position. Thus he could easily be on AJ/AT/KQ. You have a poster who has to call light. You have the button. With a 3-bet you are very likely to knock out the blinds. This is very, very situational but I firmly believe this is a 3-bet. Your odds are too good here to worry too much about being dominated. Whether or not I find this play at the table is a different story.

the reviewee replies&gt; I think you are looking at this wrong. 3-betting with AQ is generally best done against a loose raiser as an isolation play. You don’t have either of these right here, the guy is not a loose raiser and there is a caller in.

In a later email he adds, "what do you think we are ahead of here that you want to 3-bet? Even if he is loosening up his range I don't know that we are ahead of enough hands to make this hand a 3-bet."

My reasoning is as follows:

1) While a 13/9 is not limping a lot of hands he is raising more than enough not to call him a rock. This type of player certainly will raise high cards in early position, he just won't play a lot of speculative hands. I put him on the following range for his raise: 99+, AJo+, ATs+, KQs.

2) The poster is likely to be calling the raise with a huge range of hands and I am probably ahead of him.

3) I have position.

4) Facing the blinds with a 3-bet is likely to knock them out. If it succeeds, the net effect of the poster being behind and knocking out the blinds I have effectively got this pot to heads up play with 1.25 big bets as pot sweetener.

5) I am unlikely to be dominated and even if I am behind I am most likely behind with overcards. The combination of outs and pot odds should be good enough to at least get through the flop.

Thoughts?

[kerowo]

A more important question is how aggro is UTG+1? Will he fold on the flop if he misses because of your 3-bet? Will he automatically cap pre-flop? If he is super tight, fit or fold 13/9 then I don't mind this because it's easy to play. If he is 13/9/5+ then I'm more likely to go away because I'm less likely to push him off of a better ace.

[OrigamiSensei]

No indications seen that villain will cap lightly. Villain's aggro factor is 1.2. Not enough hands to rely on WTSD type statistics, but the original player of the hand may have a feel for how tenacious the villain is.