Push from SB with K9s

[OrigamiSensei]

My first MTT post so please be gentle.

In our home tournament tonight we were down to 6 players, 3 places pay. We were at the 300/600 blind level and I was dealt K9 of hearts in the small blind. I had around t2400 chips left with t300 already in the small blind. I was completely card dead for several orbits and this is the easily best hand I had seen in quite a while. I'm not sure of the average stack but I'm guessing it was around t3500-t4500.

UTG pushed for around t3100, folded to me. I know my opponents pretty well. There was a very high probability UTG held ace-rag or a pair 8 and under. Also if UTG is dealt 72 he ALWAYS plays it so that has to be included in the range. Unless BB picked up a big hand I knew he would lay his hand down so I assumed another t600 in chips for the pot along with my small blind.

I'm a little better than a 60-40 dog against ace-rag and a coin flip against a small pair. Against AK-AT I'm a little better than a 67-33 dog and a little worse than a 67:33 dog against QQ-TT. I expect to be getting 1.375:1 so the pot odds indicate fold but the situation that I may not get a better hand with crippling blinds coming does not bode well for me.

I should also note if I double up here I may very well be able to ride it out to the money due to the quick blind structures and the fact there's a lot of gambool at the table from at least two of the other players and another stack in bad shape like I am. I suspect the push is marginal but is it downright bad?

What should I have done?

[jafeather]

This is not a tough fold. You hate being in your SS situation here, but I'm not sure K9 in SB following a covering UTG AI is the place for you. Against your villians "very high probability range" you are on the very bad side of a coinflip coming in at just a hair over 44%.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.0048 % 43.69% 00.31% { Kh9h }
Hand 2: 55.9952 % 55.68% 00.31% { 88-22, A9s-A2s, A9o-A2o }

Considering that "very high probability" is topping out at 75...maybe 80% your hand here is very -EV.

Considering that ANY A here basically reverses the flip...
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.7170 % 45.11% 08.60% { AA, A7s+, A5s-A2s, A2o+ }
Hand 2: 46.2830 % 37.68% 08.60% { 88-22, A9s-A2s, A9o-A2o }

...yes, this is an easy fold, even with the dead money (which is so small it's hardly a consideration).

[towery]

Fold. Open pushing any two on a fold around is better than making this call.

[OrigamiSensei]

Thanks. Obviously I'm still having trouble selecting proper hands in late tournament situations.

[tedtodd]

Would've been an easy push for you....but you can't call in this situation. You need a stronger hand to call a push.