help me become a professional

[rush66]

Naj's post just made this thread great. Nice post. I want to second both a point by perf and by naj. Trends are worthless, and BR management is what kills everyone. You can be amazing at picking winners but if you are betting 60% of your roll each time. You are a goner.

Im stated before, a mix of capping, line movement prediction/reading, LINE SHOPPING, and BR management are the keys.

I dont think being a fantasy expert holds any weight whatsoever, personally. Just because Todd Heap scores 25 fantasy points a game, doesn't mean the ravens are going to cover the spread. Now on the other hand. I think being a good sports bettor can easily transition over to fantasy because you can waive and pick up players based on matchups for their team and the edges you have calculated your team to have.

[cato-tonia]

Ekinnehs,

as others have been unwilling to say, line movement is vastly over-rated.

and, be sure to examine the records of the various posters. many talk a very good game, but cannot isolate a winner if their lives depended on it. you will also often find, the most insolent never post a selection; or, if they do, will claim a win rate that does not tally with the selections they publish. generally, this kind of poster is most apt to ridicule approaches which differ from those most widely accepted; they put purely technical considerations before fundamental considerations; and they often accumulate data for its own sake, lacking any judgment in the relative merits of any single item of it.

this is not poker. and the only thing that readily transfers from that game to this is your ability and determination to win. you must accept as a reality how few winners there are in this game, and how very, very few win major sums of money.

gl

-c

[rush66]

I completely agree with everything, except the 1st line. The only reason anyone can say its over rated, is because they dont know how to use it correctly. Several winners in the sports betting world use line movement including fezzik (who is overrated in my opinion) and rickja, who has gone tout. It is much harder to get good at than say line shopping and in that aspect it is overrated...

BTW, I think cato is just thelyingthief under a different name.

[B00T]

cato is a member of the Crypts, ldo

[alwardc4]

I am somewhat new to sports beting. I have been taking it seriously for about 3 months and have had good success thus far. I am up around 30 units since I started. ROI around 15% (that will come down I know). Here is how I started.

1. I read the FAQ many times. In fact, I still read it occasionally to keep myself updated.

2. I ordered Wong's book. Read it twice. It has been instrumental in helping me prop betting. IMHO, prop bets are the best money makers in sports betting. You can find some every week that are 10-15% off. Mainly, I find these in NBA and NFL player props.

3. I discovered some good cappers and I just took their picks every week. Dr. Bob (although only if I get a good line since I don't pay), Rick J, MTTR's POTW, BSP thread, Performity's UFC, Naj's CB system, etc. I would like to become a good capper but that will take time. I would like to stress that I would not take these unless I was getting a good line. Like others have already stressed, line shopping is important.

4. Pride. Or lack there of. Pride is something that is dangerous for any professional gambler. I have been making a good portion of my income for about 8 years through gambling and have NEVER gone busto. One of the things that I have found instrumental for me is my lack of pride. If I needed to drop a level, I did. If it got to the point where I could not beat a certain game, I quit playing it or stopped until I studied more. Don't try to be too clever. Just make money.

That's my .02$

[NajdorfDefense]

If BR Mgmt is #1 skill, and it is, then learning how and when to drop a level is the most important part of that skill. Good call. You can do everything right and still lose 15-16 in a row. Rare, but it can and does happen.

[cato-tonia]

[ QUOTE ]
If BR Mgmt is #1 skill, and it is, then learning how and when to drop a level is the most important part of that skill. Good call. You can do everything right and still lose 15-16 in a row. Rare, but it can and does happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you're losing that many games in a row, you're not hitting at anywhere high enough percentage to make money at this game.

accepting as true this forum's belief that 57% win is professional standard, you can expect to see

3 consecutive losses 10% of the time;
4 consecutive losses 5% of the time;
6 consecutive losses 1% of the time;

if you're seeing 15 losses in a row even ONCE per life-time of betting sports you're in the realm of statistical anomaly; OR, you're in fact lousy, and only hitting roughly 33% of your plays. but then, it's also true that most folks are lousy, and would do better tossing darts than selecting winners.

the most consecutive losses i've encountered at this game is 8. and that was a product of a hangover.

-c

[Thremp]

57% WTF?!?!?

Also, its more like going 100-200 for an extended period than 15 losses in a row.