Cutting Off Set Equity

[JOHNY CA$H]

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Hey... Why IS AA 20%-ish vs 33 on a flop with a 3? Shouldn't 2 outs twice be in the 8-10% neighborhood?

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It's possible to flop set over set. We're interested in your equity when villian flops a set, not your equity when villian flops a set and you don't. The probability that an Ace will be on the board given that villian flopped a set is:

1 -(45/47)*(44/46)*(43/45)*(42/44) ~ 0.165

There's also a small chance you'll make a straight or flush or three of a kind on the board will counterfeit villian's boat.

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Ahh yes, it's the equity when they flop a set in general, not when they flop a set and you don't.