Two-street semibluff?

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">UTG runs 35/12/1.8 over 800ish hands. One time in the past he raised preflop and then overbet the pot on the flop and I smooth-called OOP with TPWK. We check-checked our way to the river where he revealed an underpair to the board, so my guess is that this overbet isn't as mighty as it looks. However, that is just a guess....</font>

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $113.40
Hero (BB): $121.05
UTG: $101.75
MP: $110.95
CO: $98.50
BTN: $105.45

Pre-Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $2, SB folds, Hero calls $1

<font color="blue">Mmmmm...odds.</font>

Flop: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $9</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27</font>, UTG calls $18

<font color="blue">I check the flop intending to semibluff check-raise if UTG bets and BTN folds, or smooth-call if UTG bets and BTN calls. My semibluff gets called, so we go to the turn.</font>

Turn: ($60.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $77</font> (villain has $72.75 left, so this is a push)....

<font color="blue">As bad cards go, that's a pretty good one -- if villain doesn't have a 4 this is going to be a pretty scary card. Also, if called I've still probably got eight outs to a winner.

Good play?</font>

[orange]

Not really. villan here is willing to call with any Q and I think you have little FE, if any. I prefer taking the more passive route with this hand (ie. c/c-ing the flop) since

-he'll pay us off when we hit.
-he seems to take somewhat of a passive route with marginal holdings that want to get to showdown.

i know he can't hand read either, but i dont really see how that 4 is a scare card.

i don't really mind the flop c/r, in fact its my std against normal opponents. just not in this situation. against braindead opponents, i rather play a bit straightfoward.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Not really. villan here is willing to call with any Q and I think you have little FE, if any. I prefer taking the more passive route with this hand (ie. c/c-ing the flop) since

-he'll pay us off when we hit.
-he seems to take somewhat of a passive route with marginal holdings that want to get to showdown.

i know he can't hand read either, but i dont really see how that 4 is a scare card.

i don't really mind the flop c/r, in fact its my std against normal opponents. just not in this situation. against braindead opponents, i rather play a bit straightfoward.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. What orange said.

He's gonna put you on a 4 exactly never, after a flop c/r. In fact, it makes sets less likely if he does happen to think about that sort of thing.

[ajmargarine]

I now see why you are running bad.

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Maaaaayyyyyyybe against a TAG reg...4 sux though because it cuts down on the sets you are trying to rep.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
I now see why you are running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! Geez, honesty hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Info assimilated (I think). Semibluff people who know where the fold button is, don't semibluff people who call.

So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I now see why you are running bad.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! Geez, honesty hurts. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Info assimilated (I think). Semibluff people who know where the fold button is, don't semibluff people who call.

So a better line after UTG bets and BTN folds would be "call, check-call"? Then donkbet if I hit the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't see much point to c/c turn. Flop you get nice implied odds for cheep and he will often give you 2 cards. But if turn bricks and he keeps firing all of that goes out the window.

[manupod]

This is really bad all around in my opinion. Preflop is ok if you can play postflop, but it looks like you can't, so I'd have folded there if I were you. After your flop c/r I'd shut down on the turn since it's about the worst possible card for you to 2 barrel, because it makes 44 less likely so he's putting us on exactly 77 and folding his overpair/TP exactly never. And probably snapping w/ 88+, too.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]

Don't see much point to c/c turn. Flop you get nice implied odds for cheep and he will often give you 2 cards. But if turn bricks and he keeps firing all of that goes out the window.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disagree.

1. Horrible implied odds.
2. Not cheap, he overbet pot.
3. We have no reason to believe he'll often give us a free turn card.

[monkover]

damn pokey you´ve always been my idol and i thought you play every hand prefectly you´ve just ruined everything! Can´t you just delete the thread and pretend it never happened?

[Pokey]

In fairness, I was sort of expecting that his hand does not always have a Q in it. Based on the previous hand, I was figuring him for an underpair -- that's why I thought I'd have some folding equity on the turn. If he had 88-JJ, that 4 was a GREAT bluff card for me. Maybe he smooth-calls the flop checkraise because he can't bring himself to believe that his beautiful little underpair is actually beaten; when the turn bricks and I continue betting strongly, he can finally talk himself into folding his JJ. I figured that if he didn't have a Q he was folding to this turn bet, and that if he DOES have a Q I've still got a 1-in-5 chance of winning on the river. If he folds to this turn bet just 1/3rd of the time, it's an EV-neutral proposition. Am I REALLY overstating things to think he'll dump it at least that often?