3/6 OOP with a plan

[jlocdog]

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why no turn c/r

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This is what I was thinking. The stack-a-donk line represents the hands you are trying to represent come river much better then a c/c turn.

Also DJ pretty much summed up what needs to be said.....

[Parlay Slow]

I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

[DJ Sensei]

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

[Parlay Slow]

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This is such a crappy draw, I just don't see the value in check-calling, and I think saying "I have a plan!" is just a way of justifying it afterwards.

c-f > c-r > c-c

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Wow you caught me. Guilty as charged.

[Senor Choppy]

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

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This is the reason a call is so bad. You can be 51% against his range, but if you're OOP, and sometimes even if you aren't, it doesn't matter. You're going to be so severely outplayed in a spot like this, you can't call profitably.

[Requin]

Yeah I agree with most of what DJ has said. Maybe you have the odds, but I don't have acess to PStove right now.

[Parlay Slow]

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I have enough pot equity vs his range to make a straight peel on the turn even without getting tricky on the river

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doesnt seem right, but if i saw some numbers and a range maybe i'd believe it.

also i dont know if thats enough to justify a turn call oop when you stand to be played well against on the river, for better or worse.

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This is the reason a call is so bad. You can be 51% against his range, but if you're OOP, and sometimes even if you aren't, it doesn't matter. You're going to be so severely outplayed in a spot like this, you can't call profitably.

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

[Senor Choppy]

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

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The primary value can't come from your 11 primary outs, you aren't getting the right price. You need to have the best hand part of the time AND you have to see a showdown with it unimproved. And I think your implied odds are pretty bad, as you can't value bet any of your outs very well. The only effective way to extract money is from inducing large bets when you hit.

To look at it another way, since you seem to have a problem with the term outplayed, who do you think is going to play the hand better on the river, you or your opponent?

[KRANTZ]

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why no turn c/r

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Because it may or may not be the best line.

What do you think?

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well, there are several lines that are probably close to optimal here and if you're good at making adjustments, c/r is the easiest and most fun

[Parlay Slow]

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Considering that the primary value of my equity here is the ability to make top pair and to make a straight (and when the river bricks ace-ten high is rarely good), how do you figure I will be "severly outplayed"?

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The primary value can't come from your 11 primary outs, you aren't getting the right price. You need to have the best hand part of the time AND you have to see a showdown with it unimproved. And I think your implied odds are pretty bad, as you can't value bet any of your outs very well. The only effective way to extract money is from inducing large bets when you hit.

To look at it another way, since you seem to have a problem with the term outplayed, who do you think is going to play the hand better on the river, you or your opponent?

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Basic poker stove analysis vs his hand range tells me that, as I just said, there is very little value (ie check-calling a bet) in AT high being good unimproved on a blank river.

Also, where the FUCK did you get the idea that I "seem to have a problem with the term outplayed". Oh wait you're the guy that also said I was making up the fact that I had a plan because I'm embarrassed about check-calling. Sounds about right.