Hand Reading: Gussing Game

[ICMoney]

Villian is a fish.
He has been calling raises pf with broadways, Q7o, A5o, etc.

He mb with air or TP.
Haven't seen him pfr before.

He's 34/5 over 100 hands.
Not many other reads.


What does my hand look like?
What is the mininum you would call river with in villian's shoes?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: $7.35
BB: $85.25
UTG: $70.05
MP: $65.85
CO: $43.40
Hero (BTN): $50.50

Pre-Flop: Two Cards dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, <font color="red">CO raises to $1.50</font>, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, MP calls $1

Flop: ($5.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
MP checks, <font color="red">CO bets $3</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $5

Turn: ($21.25) T (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $10</font>, CO calls $10

River: ($41.25) 7 (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $24 and puts him all-in</font>

[Upgrade_U]

You my friend, have a set of fives or you weren't smart enough to 3bet w/ AQ preflop

[ICMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
You my friend, have a set of fives or you weren't smart enough to 3bet w/ AQ preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you're villain you need a set, AQ, AK, QJ or what to call?

Thanks.

You're dumb friend,
ICM

[kylephilly]

You have AQ, he has a one pair hand
Minimum I call with is AQ+

[orlov]

You either have 55 or A10hearts. Tending towards A10hearts since your giving him fairly good odds to draw to his flush(if he is) and hed obviously be drawing dead. Altough this is probably overthinking it already [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Aq is in your range too probably since his pfr is small, thus u wouldnt have reraised.

Id call with Aq and KJ (assuming kj is in his pfr range lol).

[ICMoney]

Just wanted to say that I like Chick-fil-a too.

I'll post results tonight.

Keep the guesses coming.

I might give a prize or something if you guess his and my hand.

[DonManuel]

The weak turn bet is suspicious. Set of 5's is possible and also some combo draw with two hearts that missed. Villain probably has 2 pair at most. I'd call with AQ and maybe AT (and obviously with KJ). This also depends on wether the villain has the Ah. I'd call you with AK if I've seen you bluffing the river before.

[derosnec]

doesn't really matter what we call with. matters what fishy is calling with. since turn and river didn't change anything to him (i.e., the scary 3rd heart didn't show up), he's calling with a lot. don't be surprised to see KK call either.

[ICMoney]

I can easily get villain in with two 1/2 psb.

Does that play into the decision?

[gregorio]

Let's assume this is a brag post and not a beat. Obviously it looks like busted flush draw, so the simple answer is that you attempted an ill-fated bluff on the river, and villain had a hand that they never should have called with, your bluff should have worked, and you are bitter they called and screamed HYACHAYCAHCHAA!!!!! How can you call that with A9. Jesus god damned [censored]... ahhh [censored]!

But if we asusme it is a brag, two options. First, river is a bluff that worked. But this is unlikely since hero seems to know what villain had. So we can go with the second option: villain called and hero won.

We have 2 clues additional clues. First,

[ QUOTE ]
Haven't seen him pfr before.

[/ QUOTE ]

So villain has a premium hand, and hand is strong enough to get to showdown for his stack. So that leaves AK, QQ, and maybe AQ (even though hero hasn't seen villain raise, AF is 5). AA is in range, but plays flop or turn more agressive.

Second,
[ QUOTE ]
I can easily get villain in with two 1/2 psb.
Does that play into the decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

So lets assume Hero had a monster, that the plan from the flop (or at least the turn) was to get it all in on the river, and the small turn bet was just to ensure some value, while still being able to push for a 2/3psb.

On to possible hands. Hero has to have something pf worth a cc, and something on the flop worth raising, so that leaves QQ, 55, KJ, AQ and hearts (assuming AA repops pf). The turn card brings some more draws, so with hearts and straight draws out, if hero has a set, he bets more to charge the draws. What hands aren't scared of any draw. AQhh is strong and has a redraw to the nuts, but still has to worry about straight draw. So hero has to have KJhh, since this is the only hand that doesn't need to worry about giving cheap card on the turn, since it's the nuts with a redraw to the 2nd nuts.

So we know hero has KJhh, what about villain. That leaves AK, QQ and AQ. We can eliminate AKhh, since hero has Kh, and we can eliminate AQhh, since then hero would look silly not betting more on the turn. So I think we can narrow villain's range to combinations of AK and AQ that don't have 2 hearts, and QQ. QQ probably repops flop because of the draw. AK and AQ should repop too, but maybe AK/AQ are worried about sets.

So villain probably has AK, since it is more in keeping with the "haven't seen him raise pf clue," and since OP says villain is "a fish," this was a pretty fish-like wayt to play AK. AQ is also possible, but I'm going with AK.

results: Hero had KJhh; villain had AK. What's my prize.