Iggy's Week 6 NCAA Picks

iggymcfly · #1 10-05-2007, 01:30 PM

Didn't get any early lines in this week as I was in Vegas Sunday through Thursday and wasn't really spending a lot of time at my computer handicapping. Have some picks now though. Will post more when my Matchbook offers get matched.

YTD: 24-30-1 ATS/O/U, 1-1 ML, +1.15 units

Arizona/Oregon State over 54 (Risk 2.7u to win 2.5u)
Haven't put as much effort into capping totals this year, but when I've done it in the past, my results are just as good as with sides, and when I was looking at a possible side bet in this game, the over just jumped out at me. First of all, on raw averages, the average total for Arizona this year is 58.4 and the average total for Oregon State is 53.8. So just on the raw numbers, you'd be looking at a slight lean toward the over.

However, this game also features perfect matchups for the offense. Arizona ranks 11th in passing offense and 101st in rushing offense. They do much, much better when they can air it out. Well, Oregon State ranks 3rd in rushing defense, but only 93rd in pass efficiency D. Their strength (run D) is completely useless against the Wildcats who will be able to bomb away to their heart's delight all game long.

The other side of the ball is a little bit tougher to read as Oregon State ranks 32nd in passing offense, but only 103rd in passing efficiency. This is due to the large number of interceptions they've thrown on the season as they lead the country having thrown 15 picks on the year. As far as the over's concerned however, the more they pass the ball the better. When they can run the ball effectively with Yvenson Bernard (their rushing game ranks 64th on the season), they eat the clock and move the ball slowly down the field. However, their passing game makes points one way or the other as they either get yards quickly or give the opponents opportunities for quick scores off of pick sixes or by getting the ball in good field position.

Well, Arizona's going to almost force them to throw the ball as they rank 27th in rushing defense and only 73rd in passing efficency defense. The holes in the secondary will force the Beavers to take shots downfield and lead to the possibility of even more turnovers.

One worrying factor here is that Arizona in particular has faced some high-scoring opponents this year who also fit the matchup criteria pretty well in Washington State, New Mexico, and BYU which would reduce the value of the trend somewhat. Still though, I think a breakeven total would be in the 58-60 range here, giving lots of value to the over.

iggymcfly · #2 10-05-2007, 04:21 PM

Utah at Louisville -15.5 (Risk 1.5u to win 1.5u)
Not the absolute best line for L'Ville here, but with the low push frequency on 15, it's still better than taking -14.5(-110). Anyway, I'm going against most of the forum here, but I really think this game favors Louisville.

Sagarin says that the Cards should be favored by 13.5 on a neutral field which seems about right to me. The matchups are slightly in Utah's favor which would knock it down to 11.5.

However, home advantage has to be worth at least a TD here. On the one hand, we have Utah, who's 2-1 at home with a win over UCLA and 0-2 on the road where they've been outscored 51-7. Now, they're traveling cross-country on a short week coming off a rivalry game and they're supposed to come out and play well? Really? It seems like they're ready to get rocked.

To make it worse, Louisville has one of the best home-field advantages in the entire country. Despite two poor performances early in the year, they're still 15-4 ATS at home since 2004. Utah's not used to playing in front of tough crowds and I really think it's going to rattle them. I'd predict a 41-21 final here.

iggymcfly · #3 10-05-2007, 07:31 PM

POTW: Arizona State -9.5 at Washington State (Risk 2.69u to win 3u)
This line makes no sense to me at all. Arizona State's beaten everyone they've played this season by double digits including two teams better than WSU and WSU's lost by at least 20 every time they've played a BCS opponent, even losing by 21 vs. Wisconsin who couldn't beat the Citadel by more than 14. Sagarin has ASU rated as a 19.5 point favorite.

If that wasn't enough, the matchups are favorable too. WSU's a pure passing team ranking 17th in passing and only 85th rushing the ball and they go up against the 6th best pass efficency defense in the country. Arizona State is also a passing team, leading the Pac-Ten in pass efficiency and only having similar numbers of rush/pass attempts due to the fact they've been playing from in front the entire season. Washington State, meanwhile ranks 111th in pass efficiency defense, barely beating out Stanford for worst in the Pac-Ten.

There's not even worry of a letdown/lookahead game as ASU's coming off a win over Stanford and will be facing Washington next week. The only possible reason to worry here is that ASU's untested on the road and WSU's 2-0 at home. Still though, beating Idaho and SDSU isn't very impressive and WSU's 10-11 home record under Bill Doba going into the year is actually worse than their record on the road. As for the Sun Devils, the one time they did play on the road, they beat Stanford by 38. Also, WSU's been falling so fast since Doba took over that it's very doubtful the first few games this year have been a fluke. All things considered, I see no reason the Sun Devils shouldn't win this game by 20+.

MyTurn2Raise · #4 10-05-2007, 07:35 PM

uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW

Dr Bob is also on ASU

this is lining up to be a disaster

bills217 · #5 10-05-2007, 07:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW

Dr Bob is also on ASU

this is lining up to be a disaster

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a little concerned that seemingly everyone is on ASU (I have 3 units on them myself) - someone out there must be betting WSU or else we'd be seeing more line movement, I have to think.

MyTurn2Raise · #6 10-05-2007, 10:19 PM

isn't rwperu the resident ASU student/expert?
I thought pirateboy had the Phoenix connection as well.

get them both in here to report on what I'm missing

I know Torain is out, but what else

bills217 · #7 10-06-2007, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
uh-oh...iggy and I have the same POTW

Dr Bob is also on ASU

this is lining up to be a disaster

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a little concerned that seemingly everyone is on ASU (I have 3 units on them myself) - someone out there must be betting WSU or else we'd be seeing more line movement, I have to think.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is looking bad bad bad.