calling thin, part 2

[n.s.]

Live 12-24, same game as before.

Main villain in this hand is a strong, aggressive player. He's also a friend of mine and seems to play me a little soft even though we agreed that we wouldn't do that. He views me as playing straightforward TAG and maybe a little on the passive side.

BB is the lagtard from part 1 of this series. UTG+1 is another horrible player who plays way too many hands PF and likes to raise a lot PF, but he's not as horrible post-flop as BB.

PF: Hero is button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 (villain) calls, 2 more players limp, Hero limps, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players, 7 SB)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, folds to hero, Hero raises, folds to MP1, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 6.5 BB)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players 8.5 BB)
MP1 bets, Hero calls.

[gaming_mouse]

I think he raises A7s/A9s, prolly K9s too, so you are just hoping that he's 3 betting T8s or 86s, and doesn't have a set or 97s.

A made hand like J9s/Q9s is possible too I guess.

Without going through a full analysis, I think the reverse implied odds of rivers like the one that fell make this turn a fold.

Also, the river really feels like a value bet.

[n.s.]

My thought process was similar. Villain had been isolating UTG+1 all night (I probably should have mentioned before), so I think he would have raised with 77 or 99. 97s is too weak for him to limp in early position (especially because the table was moderately aggressive), and he'd never limp with 73 or 93. So that leaves a lot of 9Xs type hands, and a set of 3s. I've got 4 outs to the nuts, and getting 7:1 I need to come up with another 2 or so to make this a call. I figured that a J or T would be good often enough to justify it, but you make a good point about the RIO that creates.