Another Turn Raise for Your Dissection

[ProfessorBen]

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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

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Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

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Where do you see a read/history in the OP? I don't.

[JJH3984]

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It is worth noting we are all biased by the fish folding the turn that alot of responses in this thread are about how we can "sell our hand to the TAG" to get him to lay his hand down, when we know that usually the fish calls this turn.

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What? If the fish calls the turn bet, this c/r would be preposterous.

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HB: I'm not being clear. I'm saying people are saying we should c/r the flop because it "sells him the strength of our hand." All of this is after watching fish fold the turn, changing the mantality of the post to "how can we pick up the pot". C/R the flop might let us pick up the pot on a later street, but we shouldn't expect this result to happen often with a fish CCing with this range. We C/R the flop for value.

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Of course we are c/ring for value, but part of that value consists of fold equity. No?

[Aces McGee]

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nh sir. Villain should be folding several hands you beat here. KK-JJ/Small Aces without redraws

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Against a good, tricky, agressive player like James, there's no way the villain should fold these hands.

-McGee

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Where do you see a read/history in the OP? I don't.

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Well, we obviously can't get a read on James from the other player because the other player isn't posting.

Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.

-McGee

[HoneyBadger]

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Of course we are c/ring for value, but part of that value consists of fold equity. No?

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Yes, because if both of them call, we are almost certainly behind and drawing and the flop has neutral EV. The gain comes from the few times they might fold, and the times we hit and they feel tied to the pot.

[HoneyBadger]

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Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.


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I wouldn't even fold a pocket pair like jacks here (plus I'd check that behind, so the fact that he bets means he is either going to showdown, or he has air. The only hands we might fold out positively are hands like KQ or KJ)

[Ricks]

12% seems to be a good figure.


Assuming that if villain calls the turn raise you must hit your flush to win.

If you just call and will win one bet on the river if you hit your draw the EV is:

(9/46*6.75)+(37/46*-1) = +0.52 BB

Assuming that Villain will fold 12% of the time to your turn raise and will call half the time that you hit your draw on the river the EV is:

(12%*5.75) + (88%*9/46*7.25) +(88%*37/46*-2) = +0.52

edit: fixed mistakes

[Aces McGee]

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Even if the villain doesn't have a read on James, to assume that he's folding an ace is ridiculous.


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I wouldn't even fold a pocket pair like jacks here (plus I'd check that behind, so the fact that he bets means he is either going to showdown, or he has air. The only hands we might fold out positively are hands like KQ or KJ)

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It should be noted, however, that folding out air isn't so bad here.

-McGee

[Ricks]

Ignore above. I did not see the GS but 12% still seems to be a good figure.

Assuming that if villain calls the turn raise you must hit your flush or GS to win.

If you just call and will win one bet on the river if you hit your draw the EV is:

(12/46*6.75)+(34/46*-1) = +1.02 BB

Assuming that Villain will fold 12% of the time to your turn raise and will call half the time that you hit your draw on the river the EV is:

(12%*5.75) + (88%*12/46*7.25) +(88%*34/46*-2) = +1.05

[James.]

i'm assuming that if that guy calls a turn raise it is logical to assume he's calling a river bet all of the time.

call
(.26*6.75bb)+(.74*-1bb)=1.02bb

raise
if he folds 10%
(.10*5.75bb)+(.90*.26*7.75bb)+(.90*.74*-2)=1.06bb

if he folds 11%
(.11*5.75bb)+(.89*.26*7.75bb)+(.89*.74*-2)=1.10bb

if he folds 12%
(.12*5.75bb)+(.88*.26*7.75bb)+(.88*.74*-2)=1.16bb

so in the situation described if we can get the TAGish player to fold 10-12% of the time, our additional EV over just calling the turn bet ranges from .04bb(10%) to .14bb(12%).

this can make checkraising the turn the MORE profitable play versus alot of opponents similar to this guy.

[Ricks]

Are you planning to fire at the river if you miss and, if so, what would you believe the probability is that Villain would then fold? I ask because I am trying to work out the EV of that scenario.