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#81
10-29-2007, 11:55 PM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to understand the consensus on Arizona St. It seems like they finally beat a legit team in Cal but Cal has lost all momentum this year. I don't think Longshore was near full strength and when ASU started coming back Cal started finger pointing at each other and almost looked like they gave up. Oregon seems to me like the better team at home. 7 is a lot of pts. in conference and I swore off Dixon in big games but I don't think ASU is on the same level as Oregon. I'm not certain of the injury situation other than Johnson, Paysinger, and Colvin who were already out for Oregon. [/ QUOTE ] Carpenter showed up for practice with a thumb brace- may add more on OR 
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#82
10-30-2007, 12:00 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
I promise you, VA Tech's QBs are not even close to good. Numbers or not, look at their numbers against the few decent teams they have played. [/ QUOTE ] So if Glennon plays poorly against "decent" pass defenses, yet has good overall passing stats, he must do pretty damn well vs poor pass defenses QED. And we are apparently in agreement that GT is poor against the pass...
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#83
10-30-2007, 12:35 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
GA Tech is number 34 in the country in pass defense and 40 in pass efficiency defense. They have had some problems with teams that can get the ball down the field, VA Tech has not shown the ability to do this despite having a pretty good crop of receivers.
Glennon put up respectable numbers against two 90+ pass defenses (ECU and Duke). This GA Tech D, while flawed, is significantly better than either. In addition, giving Tenuta generally means he will have an excellent plan. I don't see how VA Tech will move the ball in this game, to win they will have to make a short field regularly. This is just not something I would be willing to bet on happening, especially considering punting is actually a strength for GA Tech.
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#84
10-30-2007, 01:19 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
So far:
VTech +3 Rutgers +3 S Fla -4.5 UCLA -2 Michigan -4 Interested in: Temple +7.5 S Car +4.5 UTEP -7 Idaho +3.5 Missouri -4 Oregon/Az St...take a good look at the 1st half line when it comes out with an eye toward Oregon. The Sun Devils have been a slow starting, great 2nd half team in every conference game this year except Stanford. Notre Dame/Navy... ND sucks but has better athletes and an extra week to prepare. Navy runs the ball well but their defense couldn't stop a junior high team. And ND has won 43 games in a row in this 'rivalry'.I wouldn't bet this game with monopoly money.
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#85
10-30-2007, 01:42 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
The reason Sean Glennon has a similar QB rating to Matt Ryan is the difference in attempts. Virginia Tech runs it as much as possible to mask their weaknesses at QB and so when Glennon makes some occasional throws off of play action, they're efficient. They certainly can't hammer a secondary the way BC can however. If you look at raw passing numbers, BC's #9 in the country and VT's #102.
Also, when not facing East Carolina or Duke, Glennon is a combined 25/47 for 229 yards (4.9 YPA) with 1 TD, 1 INT and 5 sacks. If Virginia Tech can't establish the run, (which they definitely won't be able to against GT), their offense will likely come up with something in the neighborhood of the 10 points they scored against BC. And while I didn't see the latest on Grant (missed yesterday's update, they were saying he'd play during the bye week), I still think you're vastly underrating Dwyer. His coaches didn't "lose confidence in him" after the Virginia game, it's just that Tashard Choice got healthy then and started taking the lion's share of the carries. BTW, doing things like counting up "phases of the game" is a terrible way to compare teams. If that were the case, it wouldn't matter what kind of defense Navy faced in any game since they'd always have the edge on rushing offense and would never have the edge on passing offense. The point is that Georgia Tech's a pure running team. The only other time the VT defense faced a running team this year, they had their worst game of the year, giving up 305 yards on the ground to LSU. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, GT's been stout every game except when they faced a pure passing team in BC and got handled. Well, VT's not a good passing team by any stretch of the imagination and should pose no problems there. That means that in addition to the general rating of the teams (which I'm grabbing straight from Sagarin, GT half a point better on a neutral field), Georgia Tech has a relative edge in matchups since their strength will be more useful against the VT defense and their weakness is one that VT can't take advantage of.
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#86
10-30-2007, 07:57 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
ECU and UCF were my 2 3U bets. ECU at -5 is stupid silly.
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#87
10-30-2007, 08:00 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
[ QUOTE ]
Notre Dame/Navy... ND sucks but has better athletes and an extra week to prepare. Navy runs the ball well but their defense couldn't stop a junior high team. And ND has won 43 games in a row in this 'rivalry'.I wouldn't bet this game with monopoly money. [/ QUOTE ] Navy has an offense though. Sure, its not a world-beater, but it is solid. ND has an offense that will beat itself. It's not so much that Navy can't stop any offense, its that ND's offense can't beat any defense.
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#88
10-30-2007, 11:20 AM
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Re: Week 10 Early NCAA Lines
I think I saw (in this thread) a ML on the VT/GT game at +102 for VT. Anyone seen the ML at a more square book? I'd guess even, but that seems a little low for a team getting 2.5 points.
As far as VTs ability to score, I agree with others that it is low. On the other hand, their defense and special teams are great (disagree with an earlier post that special teams is a wash). I think VT is going to get a lot of short fields and will take advantage of GT mistakes when on defense and special teams, mistakes that teams like BC and LSU (their two losses) didn't make. Woudl probably lean towards the money line if I could find it at +110, but if its even I'll probably stick with +2.5. In a low scoring game, either team could easily win by a point.
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