CFB Early Lines Thread (week of 10/8)

[thelyingthief]

with the difficulties the razorbacks must deal with off the field, their inability to string together 3, let alone 4 successive quarters of football, and auburn's loss last year, which may give the tigers cause for revenge, this game is not too inaccesible a bet.

tlt

[kevin017]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt I'll ever get near a UVA game the rest of this year

[/ QUOTE ]

i saw you put 2.5 on UVA vs. middle tenn... made me cringe.

i'd imagine uva is going to roll vs. uconn, its just so hard to tell how decent the big east teams are, and uva isn't exactly a model of consistency either.

[MyTurn2Raise]

POTW: Illinois -3.5 @ Iowa bet 2u to win 2u

I will likely add units, but there is a chance I can get the 3 again.

I know...road fave that is close to my heart....I just cannot pass up the pick.

Iowa is vastly overrated by the genral public and there has not been enough adjustment back (witness their 1-10 ATS record last year and 3-3 this year so far while losing 8 big11ten games in a row SU, including falling way short the past 2 weeks despite Iowa's +7 TO margin on the year). They cannot run the ball and their passing attack is below average. Iowa is averaging 3.3 ypc! The Illini defense is allowing 3.0 ypc! Illinois just stuffed the run v both Penn St and Wisconsin. Illinois turned both those teams into one-dimensional passing attacks. I was at the Illinois game and then reviewed the game on DVR. The last game v Wisconsin was one of the best displays I've ever seen of hard-hitting by a defense. Wisconsin players were getting layed out on a regular basis. Iowa was held to 59 net rushing yards @ Wisconsin and 48 @ Penn St. The Illini run defense is very comparable and probably slightly better than those other two teams, though it would be tough to duplicate the number of sacks both teams put on the Hawkeyes. It seems that for the third week in a row, the Illini will make their opponent go to something they are uncomfortable with and try to win the game through the air. Now, Penn St and Wisconsin were able to get some points because they have excellent overall receiving corps (that TE for Wisconsin is AA quality). Iowa, through suspensions and injury, have very little on the outside to threaten anyone. The Hawkeyes leading 2 receivers are redshirt freshman who were #50 or below at their position in recruiting rankings and only have 15 catches through 6 games (2.5 per game). I do see Iowa's TE, Moeaki, having some success as it seems TEs over the middle have been the thing the Illini D will give up. Moeaki has 14 catches and 3 TDs through 6 games. Iowa's offense should be better this year if one looked at the talent of players in place. For some reason, it hasn't gelled--IMO, it's lack of playmakers.

On the other side of the ball, Illinois has no deep passing attack. I have to say after a few weeks that I don't think that matters. I've made the comparison before and continue to, Illinois is a slightly worse version of the West Virginia offense. Mendenhall is ridic talented-- patient, quick, power, speed to go all the way. Juice is getting better with every game. He played nearly perfect in the last outing. He has gotten real good at knowing which of the run options he should go with. He had three runs for 24 yards last week. He has not been turning the ball over. McGee has shown himself to be a capable backup when Juice goes down. While McGee doesn't hold onto the ball as well, he is quicker and can turn the 20 yard runs into 45 yard ones. Arrelious Benn is at full speed and ready to play after a shoulder he reinjured stiff arming a Wisconsin defender. He's a highlight reel on the field and reminds many of Anquan Boldin or Andre Johnson with his combination of quickness and power. Everyone knows Illinois is run, run, run, yet they still have success doing it. After leading the big11ten in rushing last year, the Illini are doing it again this year. The Illini currently average 5.7 ypc for over 261 ypg on the ground. Iowa's rush defense looked good early and is only giving up 3.0ypc. However, it turns out that was likely due to playing NIU, Syracuse, and Iowa St. In 2 of their last 3 games, the Hawkeyes were battered on the ground (the only game they weren't was when Kellen Lewis dropped 360 on them through the air at Kinnick stadium in a 38-20 Indiana win). Penn St, whose rush game looked very poor @ Michigan and @ Illinois, had 256 yards on 50 carries v the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin had 3 disasterous sacks v Iowa that brought their total down, but ran the ball for nearly 200 yards on the other 45 carries. However, Illinois brings a different type of run attack out of the shotgun spread read option. It should be noted that Iowa allowed N'western (very similar attack to Illinois) 225 yards on 41 carries near the end of last season and Purdue (different type of shotgun spread) had 202 yards on 36 carries last season. Also of note is that Mike Klinkenborg, Iowa's talented MLB, had a concussion in the last game. He is expected to play, but one wonders how many hits he can take. Trust me, it takes a physical MLB to stand-up v the Illinois rush attack.


The negative I see is that Iowa did beat Illinois 24-7 in Champaign early last season. The two teams have gone in very different directions since then, but the game still sticks in the back of my head. Iowa benefitted from terrible Illinois punting and got far enough ahead that it forced Illinois to pass the ball, which is a disaster for Illinois (12 of 39 in that game). Iowa got to Juice 3 times and was +3 on the turnovers. Iowa's offense was very mediocre in Champaign, but good defense and great field position led the way to victory for the Hawkeyes.

One interesting thing of note is that Iowa is probably the school Illinois hates most. Illinois has owned the alltime series in both football and basketball. There was bad enough blood in the late 50s that Iowa and Illinois didn't play each other in football for over a decade despite being in the same conference after an on field riot. Iowa's close ties with the NCAA and outright fabricated tattle-tale to the NCAA has resulted in numerous Illinois probations and a long history of bitter relations. Of late, Iowa has become the school for kids who cannot get into Illinois as many Chicagoland western suburban students fill the Iowa campus after their ACT/GPA doesn't measure up to Urbana-Champaign standards. What impact this has on a mainly nationally recruited football team is debatable. I do think it does mitigate Illinois overlooking the Hawkeyes to some extent, which is a concern of some.

Oh yeah...some will point out how good Ferentz is at home and whatnot (24-10 home fave ATS and 6-4-1 home dog ATS). Ummm...that fell apart beginning last season. The Hawkeyes are only 2-6 ATS at home since the beginning of last year.

[pirateboy]

I would have killed for my bet on Illinois -1.5 to have been made 3 seconds earlier. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Austiger]

Only 3 picks so far. All to win 1 unit of course, at dime odds:

Washington +12.5
Miami -2
Baylor +25.5

[brendanb438]

My early picks

Illinois -3 -110 to win 2 units
Central Mich -11 -110 to win 1 unit
UAB -3 -115 to win 1 unit

[NajdorfDefense]

leaning Miami -2 and UNC +6.5 right now, gonna wait and hope for a better line for today though.

[Ichabod1985]

Tennesse -7 1 Unit
Boston College -14 2 Units
Illinois -3.5 2 Units
FSU -5.5 1 Unit
Miami -2.5 1 Unit
S. Carolina -6.5 2 Units
E. Carolina +2 1 Unit
Georgia -7 1 Unit

[talcum]

San Jose St. +19 2 units
Illinois -3.5 2 units

Purdue +6 1 unit
Cincy -10.5 1u
Ole Miss +7 1u
Buffalo -3.5 1u
Stanford +6 1u
Auburn +3 1u
Indiana +5.5 1u
BYU -10.5 1u
Mid Tenn. +4.5 1u

Navy +4.5 0.5u
Wake +7 0.5u
Mizzou +11 0.5u
ECU +2 0.5u

YTD 7-5 +4.5 units

[MyTurn2Raise]

damn...lost a half point on this one... still love it long-time

Indiana +5 @ MSU bet 3.15u to win 3u