Week 6 POTW

[kmaldona]

There has not been a pick of the week thread yet so lets start on.

My POTW is [1315] 1H WISCONSIN+1½-115.

What are your POTW

[Murphinator]

Dallas -10.5 easy, Dallas has been good to me all year.

[MyTurn2Raise]

Week 6 POTW
Arizona St -8.5 @ Wazzu bet 3.3u to win 3u


I know...a big road fave
only reason I'm not on for a fourth unit


4-1 POTW ytd (23-11 2p2 history)
G Tech +3 @ ND: +WIN G Tech 33-0
Bowling Green +18 @ Mich St: +WIN 28-17 MSU
Utah +14 v UCLA: +WIN 44-6 Utah
Indiana +3 v Illinois: -LOSS 27-14 Illini
Oklahoma/Colorado u56: WIN 27-24 Colorado

POTW gets my reasoning:

My number crunching has ASU -12.5!!!!
So, I look at the matchups and see no reason to lean Wazzu's way over my numbers. ASU has a great pass defense (#6 in pass efficiency). They held down a Colorado team that is ok passing. they picked off the Beavers 5 times... at clutch moments, too. No one has victimized them through the air, yet the passing offense is about all Wazzu has going for it. Wazzu's pass offense looks great v inferior opponents, but struggled against teams with good pass Ds (17 of 28 for 171 with 1 Int and 1 TD v Wisky, 21 of 43 for 183 with 1 int and 2 TDs v SC). Furthermore, Wazzu's rush offense is below average and ASU's rush defense is top 10. Look for Wazzu to get put in many 3rd and longs and throw a pick or two. Don't look for Wazzu to get many big plays as ASU doesn't have to respect the run game and can play 2 deeps alot.

On the other side of the ball,
Wazzu's defense is 111 in pass efficiency. FFS, they let Willie Tuitama throw for 350 and 6 TDs last week! Through 5 games, the Cougs have allowed 120 completions on 182 attempts for 1452 yards and 16 TDs while getting 7 ints (4 of which came v Idaho). ASU is #9 in pass efficieny and avgs 275 a game through the air. They also have an average rushing attack (over 4 ypc), which will force Wazzu's average rush defense (allows 4.5 ypc, but has played SC and Wisky of its 5 opponents) to pay it some mind. Looks like a decent amount of points from the ASU side.

I see a 38-21 type game.

[talcum]

North Carolina +9 (-110) got it early at betus, i see it is 7.5 now
UAB +19 is my co pick of the week, I have 2 units on each of these

1 unit on:

Houston +13
So. Florida -17
Oklahoma -11

YTD NCAA 4-3 + 1.7 units

[pgjcbsn]

Notre Dame +20.5 vs UCLA

I know, I know, ND is not very good but UCLA is pretty mediocre too IMO. 20.5 is just too many points to give.

[MyTurn2Raise]

oh yeah, for those that don't trust my numbers, mine are alot closer than some out there widely available

sagarin has ASU 22 points better than Wazzu on nuetral for predictor, 19 points better overall.

[pirateboy]

Mine is Tulsa -3 @ UTEP

[talcum]

Thanks for the analysis. I like the pick too but I'm always leary of laying points up there. Seen some strange inexplicable games in the Palouse over the years.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I think the whole Pac10 has soem weird things happen on occassion

[talcum]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the whole Pac10 has soem weird things happen on occassion

[/ QUOTE ]

How true. Curious if you used 3 pts. as default for home field for this.