$10k WPT Foxwoods - Turn/river line with trips on a dry board

[psyduck]

Background: villain is a mostly straightforward TAG leaning on the tight side. He is one of the better players at the table and seems to be able to hand-read. He opens fairly tightly but also c-bets with a good frequency, almost always heads-up but he has given up some pots 3-way when he was the preflop raiser. He also doesn't value-bet thin at all, opting to showdown in position with middle pair-TK type hands, and some weak top pair hands as well. He also doesn't seem to double-barrel that much, but his flop c-bet frequency in HU pots is fairly high. He probably has some tricks up his sleeve but seems like 95% straightforward.

I have a losing image. I am down from 30k to 20k mostly because of two big hands, one where I double-barrelled on a J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q board and folded on the river (lost T5500 there), and once when I 3-bet AA preflop, and bet/folded on a K 8 5 rainbow board to a massive insta-check-raise-shove (lost T4000 there, and villain saw the AA fold). I am winning all my small pots and losing all my big pots. I have donked into the preflop-raiser a couple times on the flop and have either won or shutdown, and villain is paying attention to this very closely.

Eff stacks 20k, blinds 100/200. Villain opens to T600 exactly in MP at a 9 handed game, folds to me and I call in BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Multiple reasons I called, but let's focus on postflop.

Flop Q 7 6 rainbow (pot 1300). Check, he insta-bets 600, I call fairly quickly.

Turn 7 offsuit (pot 2500). I lead 1200, he makes it 2800 fairly quickly, I call.

River 9 (pot 8100). I count my stack, and see I have like 15500 left. I lead 5200. He asks me to move my hands so he can see my stack, I do so and he sees I have very close to 10k left, and he shoves out all his 5k and 1k chips putting me in after about 1 minute.

Thoughts? I am interested in different turn/river lines, as well as how good this line I took was overall.

[ArturiusX]

I think its a strange line if you intend on bet/folding the river. I'd think checking is best since he's probably going to value bet worse a lot.

[brad2002tj]

Obviously I am not as skilled as many here but take it FWIW.

I will call this pre-flop maybe 50% of the time against an opponent like this. BUT I'm looking for 2 pair or a monster draw on the flop to continue.

After you hit trips and call his raise aren't you committed to the hand? As played I don't see how you can lay this down.

Would this opponent do this only with kk/aa/aq?

[zizazziza]

i like the way you played it. I may lead for less on the river (maybe 1/2psb like turn) so that you can possibly induce a river-bluff. i call the river but hate myself for it. When you make this bet it looks like you have 89 or something like that and trying to take this down. I think this is a either a bluff or a boat. You are getting like 4:1 on your money. So if you think he will make this bluff 25% of the time then call.

[Cornell Fiji]

Vivek,
I like it... now fold to his shove.

There is not really much to even discuss - he doesn't value bet thin so there is no way he is shoving over you with AA/KK/AQ after you donked out on the turn.

With you coming in from the BB and with you leading out on the turned trips he definitely has a 7 as a strong part of your range and there is no reason to think that he believes that he can get you to fold your trips (and there is not even a reasonable hand that he can be bluffing with other than a stone cold bluff, especiaclly since 45s/89s should be mucking the turn).

I guess he might be pushing you off a chop with his 78s but it seems more likely that he boated up on the turn because he probably wouldn't even shove 78s given your description.

I definitely like the turn lead against the described opponent and I like bet/fold on the river too. If I was worried about being blown off my hand on the river I would check/call but I think that bet/calling is obviously wrong against the described villain.

-Steve

PS- Please post the AA hand (any chance he could have had AK as a decent part of his range? was it a snap fold on your part? a strong live read on a drawless board...?)

[RobGW]

He is playing it like he has QQ. That doesn't necessarily mean he does though, especially since you doublebarreled then folded and folded your AA to a reraise. He might think he can push you off of your hand. Given the size of this pot, I think I would make the call.

[Todd Terry]

I think leading the turn looks like you have a 7 in your hand, which is one reason why I wouldn't do it, the other being there's no reason to think he has any hand at all here and you're going to generate a lot of folds. I'd rather give him a chance to double barrel and/or catch up.

Bet, call a raise, then lead the next street is a line that says my hand is huge, his raise over it says my hand is bigger, I'd be inclined to believe him and fold as played. I like c/c'ing, or maybe even c/f'ing, the river after he raised you on the turn, if you think he knows enough to realize you probably have a 7, plus he doesn't seem to bet thin on the river.

I'd check/call turn, bet river.

[psyduck]

At the time of his turn raise, I thought there was a good possibility he was doing a free showdown raise with hands like AQ KK AA, or hoping that the raise induced me to check the river after which he could figure out whether to bet or check behind.

edit: Steve, the AA hand was pretty standard. Blinds 50/100, UTG opens to 300, CO who is loose/passive flats, I make it 1500 on button with AA, UTG folds, CO insta-calls. Flop K85r, he checks, I bet 2500, he INSTAINSTAINSTA-shoves for 25,000 effective stacks and I folded. I had seen him take extremely passive lines with AK like limping behind, calling a bet on a (T76 board (lol)), and just calling a bet on a turned A and checking behind X river, so I felt 99% confident folding AA.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
At the time of his turn raise, I thought there was a good possibility he was doing a free showdown raise with hands like AQ KK AA, or hoping that the raise induced me to check the river after which he could figure out whether to bet or check behind.


[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty elaborate for a straight forward tag don't you think?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Vivek,
I like it... now fold to his shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it all provided you called, because with this image you 100% have to call and if this guy is ever, ever, ever making a move, it's exactly right this very second.