Shoving ranges with 4-5 BB stacks

[psyduck]

A weird situation came up today that I'm usually not accustomed to. The very previous hand I had lost a flip for 75% of my stack, and I was left with a 5BB stack here.

We are ITM in the nightly $163. No reads since I just got moved, and I don't recognize any of the names of players behind me. Is this even pertinent? What should my shoving range be here?

Seat 1: the3gs (23487 in chips)
Seat 2: psyduck101 (4896 in chips)
Seat 3: tekiller (28894 in chips)
Seat 5: America4551 (11304 in chips)
Seat 6: djk123 (55788 in chips)
Seat 7: GG X WR (10420 in chips)
Seat 8: jayzmo (20977 in chips)
Seat 9: MSUcougar (62032 in chips)
8 players post antes

GG X WR: posts small blind 500
jayzmo: posts big blind 1000

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to psyduck101 [X X]
MSUcougar: folds
the3gs: folds
psyduck101 shoves what range????


In these situations I've taken it for granted that I should shove 100% or close to it. However,<u> fold equity is not linear</u>. It's much better to shove with 7-8 bbs here with any 2 cards instead of shoving any 2 with 4-5 BBs. I think with 3 bbs, it's definitely not any 2 since you're 100% to get looked up (however you should definitely be shoving wide).


Edit: some more notes:
with 3 bbs, it's very bad to have a shoving range of 100% here since BB will look you up 100% and very very often you'll get people isolating you OR just calling and then BB will call with any 2 once again getting a HUGE price.

with 4-5 bbs (as here), if people again are going to call with Ax and Kx behind me (and sometimes even looser correctly), then pushing is -EV again. I'd much rather wait till the big blind and make a zero EV play (get it all correctly vs a raise) instead of making a -EV play. I have to fade 5 different hands behind me, hoping that they fold bad A's and K's and other such hands. And if the BB is competent, he will call with any 2 which is again not what I want.

Also sometimes if it folds around to my BB, I might get a walk.

What I'm asking is, with this type of stack, is it pretty much impossible to make a +EV play, so I have to resort to making the play that is the least -EV?

[MrTimCaum]

i really hope this gets some good discussion. me, vivek, kush, and stealthmunk had some really strong opinions about the hand, and i'm really interested to see what other people think, but it's going to take an incredible argument for me to change my mind.

[stealthmunk]

[ QUOTE ]
i really hope this gets some good discussion. me, vivek, kush, and stealthmunk had some really strong opinions about the hand, and i'm really interested to see what other people think, but it's going to take an incredible argument for me to change my mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

A shove here with ATC is MUCH BETTER if everyone's stack was much closer (like 10-15bbish stacks that you usually see in like the 109r) I shove here pretty liberally with like any suited connector/2gapper as well as the obv anypair/ace/suitedking/2broadway in that spot. However, your pretty much getting called by anything in the blinds, but if the 5k was a much bigger dent in your opponent's stack, they would even fold like Ax os which would be a grave mistake to maintain fold equity and keep their tourney life. However, probably the best MTT player online, is very against shoving weaker strength hands in this spot (even suited connectors i think) And would value the tourney life and hope to pick up a stronger hand in the next 2hands than say 7/Jhigh.

[CybrPunk]

If you were to assume tight calling ranges for the table you're only going to steal the blinds about 45% of the time. With your stack being this short I would say that your chance to steal is significantly smaller because people's calling ranges are that much wider and you're almost certain to get called. The problem, however, is that by paying the blinds and hoping to fold UTG and pickup a better hand you are assured to be called by anyone with 2 cards once the blnids pass you. You won't have a stack to leverage any fold equity and you probably have to be even more eager to get the money in, even if that means calling someone elses push with what may not be the greatest holding as it could very well be the best holding you'll see before going broke.

Still I I don't think this is a spot to push literally any 2. I'm not a huge fan of getting my money in the pot knowing that I'm going to be a huge underdog when called. I also prefer some high card strength so you have a shot at winning the pot unimproved. I probably push any pair, any ace, any two broadway, any king, suited connectors and one gappers T9s and up, most queens and some jacks.

So yes... there are some hands where I can find a fold here.

For me, my shoving range here is more highly determined by the size of the stack (and calling tendencies) of the BB than my actual hand. Obviously, the top of my range is still getting shoved regardless, and the bottom of my range is still getting folded, but we get to mid-strength hands like T8s, 78s, J9o... I think the decision comes down to FE, which I think is 75% comprised of BB stack size when you're this short.

[registrar]

This thread rocks.

[Confused1]

I agree that FE isn't linear. Where are you wrt the bubble (last one/next one?).

If this is RIGHT after the bubble, then everyone is calling looser. Later, still calling loose, but maybe not AS loose. Any new money level bubble should aid you with FE, too.

Once you go sub 5BBs, you're getting called a lot, especially with 5 to act.

If we give each of the 5 people to act a calling range of 'top 20%' of showdown hands (33+,A4o+,A2s+,KJo+,KTs+), you're getting called ~56% of the time.

If we open that up to a 'top 40% hand' (22+,A2+,K2+,Q9o+,Q5s+,JTo,J8s+,T9s) you get called ~89% of the time (up to 94% if you have don't have the most used cards that range).

If I think I have callers using that top 20% range, any hand is a push here, imo.

If I think they're more likely to use that second one (due to the bubble, etc.), then I'd eat the blinds before I pushed anything like any two. I'd want my showdown value to be as big as possible, since increases in showdown value are nearly linear increases in EV.

Assuming that second calling range - then 22 get's folded to 6.45% of the time and wins 42% of the time you're called. 47% win equity....T7o has 35.8% win equity....TJs has 43.9% win equity...Q9s has 42.7%

The only hands that are +50% against that 40% call range are 44+, A3s+, A7o+. KTs+, KJo+

[SonofDjugashvili]

In a B&amp;M I would shove with ATC, especially if the people behind you are middle aged + or women. ;-) Online, I think you have to be a bit more selective. On one hand, this is the 1st of 4 hands of which you will have to play at least one, since I hope everyone agrees we are not folding in the BB if it gets that far. So, perhaps, if you have something like 62o you can fold. OTOH, if you fold now, chances increase that you will not be 1st in on subsequent hands, and will not have any FE. Personally, I'm tempted to overlook cards and shove the 1st time I get to be first in, absent any information about the other players. A lot of players will lay down medium aces to an all-in in a situation like this, so I'd rather have the FE now than hoping to get a Q or something in the next 3 hands.

[registrar]

In response to OP, and with no maths to back it up, I'd be shing any ace, most face cards (J6o+), any two cards over 8 and 56s+.

[UMTerp]

This isn't a complete response, but if the BB (and especially if both the SB and BB) here has/have stacks of about 10-15BB, I'm definitely shoving really wide (maybe ATC), because I might have some fold equity. Actually the BB's stack size here is probably the one of the biggest determining factors for my pushing range, especially in a semi-readless online tournament.

Edit - I see Kramer posted a similar response already...