Introduction to Five Tools Analysis: Hitting

[kyleb]

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You mentioned about great plate discipline (avoiding swinging at pitches in their weak zones early in the count). But what about other things that have to do with pitch recognition. As a pitcher in college and as a hitter in high school and summer leagues, I've noticed that certain hitters simply cannot identify the change-up or slider or curveball or splitter. These hitters have a really hard time against good pitchers that notice these things. Now I suppose everyone in the majors has to be decent at identifying these pitches, but my guess is that some are better than others

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Without adequate pitch recognition, you cannot succeed at any level as a hitter. Most hitters hit off the fastball and adjust to off-speed pitches, which is how I work as well. My sequence of hitting involves a soft focus on the pitcher's cap as he starts the windup with a hard focus in a small box at/around the pitcher's release point to determine what type of pitch it is. Most pitchers at the amateur level throw too many fastballs in obvious counts and don't work backwards, so I'm an aggressive hitter.

When you see people taking hacks at the first pitch, you often say "Christ, develop some plate discipline!" However, most hitting coaches I know say to look for a specific pitch and location - if it's there, you have to swing, because you were anticipating it, and that's a pitcher mistake you can't let get by you. If the pitcher is simply going to throw a middle-in fastball every time for strike one, taking it is foolish - it may be the best pitch you'll see all at-bat.

For curveballs, I look for a noticeably slower delivery by the pitcher, a shorter arm action, and obviously the hump in the ball when thrown. I have no problem adjusting to most curveballs.

For sliders, you look for a red dot on the ball; when it is thrown with the spin it will typically rotate on a stitch so you can tell the difference between a fastball and a slider.

A well-thrown changeup is impossible to detect. Pitchers that use the same arm action, delivery, and seam-orient to their changeup are miles ahead of you. If they throw a four-seam fastball and a four-seam changeup for strikes, you are basically screwed. The advice there is to not miss the fastball. However, many pitchers throw a four-seam fastball and a two-seam changeup, so you can pick out the differences occasionally.

An effective splitter is impossible to hit. An effective two-seam fastball cannot be hit out of the infield.

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How important is this to hitting or is it one of those things like catcher's calling a good game that don't have much impact on the outcome?

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In the end, the catcher is not throwing the ball, the pitcher is. When I caught and called a pitch that was hit over the fence, I would feel bad. Ultimately, however, the pitcher decides what he wants to throw, so he is responsible for it. That's not saying a catcher is useless; catchers can often pick up on hitters' tells that are very valuable.

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Also, comparing the Bonds and the Mauer videos, Bonds looks perfectly balanced while Mauer looks a bit off balance (his front foot is all over the place). Is this just an unlucky video or does he always look that off balance? Or am I just interpreting the herky jerky motions incorrectly?

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I am pretty sure Mauer is hitter a breaking ball in the video, which is the reason he is a bit disconnected. He (like most other hitters) hit off the fastball and adjust to off-speed pitches. That's what it looks like when you are adjusting (pretty ugly, eh?).

[HajiShirazu]

I didn't realize how much swinging a baseball bat was like swinging a golf club.

[PokerFink]

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An effective splitter is impossible to hit. An effective two-seam fastball cannot be hit out of the infield.

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I know it's outside the realm of this thread, but could you explain the split? I've always wondered about that pitch and why hitters flail so pathetically at it.

[kyleb]

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An effective splitter is impossible to hit. An effective two-seam fastball cannot be hit out of the infield.

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I know it's outside the realm of this thread, but could you explain the split? I've always wondered about that pitch and why hitters flail so pathetically at it.

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Any pitch that looks like a fastball but then does something else will [censored] you up royally. That's the long and short of it.

[PokerFink]

Re: Billy Beane

According to rwperu, a "two decade prospector": <font color="#666666"> "For example, in rookie ball, the weight is something like 99% scouting reports, 1% stats. For a 23yo at AAA the weight is closer to 50/50, maybe even 60/40 in favor of stats."</font>

Billy would say that, even for college players that aren't even too rookie ball yet, you don't need the scouts. They were drafting college kids based on stats with almost a complete disregard for scouting them.

We're not talking highschool kids here. We're talking college+. And for that age range, we have Billy Beane at 95%+ stats and our poster at "99%" scouting.

Edit: Ok just saw your post that you got in before this one, that makes a lot of sense.

Edit2: I was also under the impression that it went college --&gt; rookie ball --&gt; minors, although some people will jump a level. I vaguely remember reading about Swisher and Brown playing in rookie ball before getting into the minors.

And even still, rwperu was talking AAA not A ball, although I don't know how he would assign the %s at A. And regardless, there is obviously a big gap between his philosophies and that of Beane.

[kyleb]

College+ kids don't go to rookie ball. They go to various A levels of ball, so what rwperu said is still valid.

EDIT: Well, good college kids don't go to rookie ball unless it's short-season.

I would be willing to bet that Beane uses a lot more traditional scouting analysis than he has ever admitted.

[Matt Williams]

Kyle,
Great stuff. I have a few questions though.

1. Do hitters change their swings to compensate for a weakness? Let's say a AA player can't hit a low inside curveball. How does that player adjust so that the pitchers don't constantly throw that pitch? Or is he basically never going to move up to AAA or the majors?

2. Mickey Mantle always used to say to hit for distance, you almost have to start swinging before the pitcher throws the ball. What does he mean by that?

3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting?

[Pudge714]

Great post
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) That's not really the Moneyball idea, but I see why people get that feeling based on Lewis's book. I believe what a player has done (stats) is more important than what a player can do (tools), but too much reliance on stats will lead to the Blue Jays Syndrome - getting a ton of low-ceiling low-variance players in your farm system without any impact players.


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[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Thremp]

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3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting?

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I'm not kyleb, but IIRC I spotted a BP piece that noted a statistical significance with prospects and their weight with isolated power.

So to a degree... yes?

[kyleb]

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1. Do hitters change their swings to compensate for a weakness? Let's say a AA player can't hit a low inside curveball. How does that player adjust so that the pitchers don't constantly throw that pitch? Or is he basically never going to move up to AAA or the majors?

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I suppose the best way I can answer this question is with an anecdote from Moneyball. Jason Giambi can't hit a fastball waist-high on the inside corner of the plate. However, if you miss by 2 inches, you get the favorite part of his hitting zone.

Giambi also steps out and smashes those pitches foul, scaring the pitcher into believing he can hit that pitch.

No hitter can hit all types of pitches in all zones of the plate. Fortunately enough, most pitchers aren't good enough to throw the weakness pitch every single time.

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2. Mickey Mantle always used to say to hit for distance, you almost have to start swinging before the pitcher throws the ball. What does he mean by that?

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He is right. He's basically saying you need to load the bat and follow the four steps of hitting that I outlined. The best power hitters exercise a negative bat load by bringing their hands back and loading their back shoulder as they perform the back leg push step, creating greater "separation."

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3. If you compare Derek Jeter and A-Rod, both are the same height although A-Rod is about 20 lbs. heavier. So how come A-Rod has 500+ HR's and Jeter is nowhere near that amount? Does the difference in weight make that much of a factor when hitting?

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A-Rod has a lot of things going for him over Jeter:

1) He has way more LBM.
2) His swing is a classic power stroke that is nearly identical to Hank Aaron's. He generates insane backspin on his fly balls, giving them 20-30 feet more distance easily.
3) His swing has more loft in it.
4) And lastly, A-Rod is just a better hitter.