Live $1/$2 game, tricky AA, 250BB deep...

[cubase]

(**note**: results are in this post, if you are not interested in the results stop reading now)

Thanks for the thoughts. The check-call to river (providing he doesn't shove) seems like not a terrible option.

I think the only 9 he raises (based on his prior play) would be A9. He turns more into a calling station with more marginal TP's, and I'm not even sure he raises with A9, he probably just calls down with it.

I pretty much put him on 44/55/99/45 and a possible TT and less likely JJ (I think he probably re-raises with JJ, but I'm not sure because he didn't do a lot of raising pre-flop). Of the 3-bets pre that I saw the worst hand was KK.

I really didn't even consider him having a nine initially.

When the nine came out and he led, I was really confused by the bet.

My confusion combined with the growing pot with "just" an overpair led me to a fold, giving him credit for 9. I folded and showed, and he showed me his counterfeited 45.

Hindsight being as powerful as it is, it makes sense now. If he had 99/44/55/45 he of course raises the flop (which is consistent with his past play). He plays big hands fast on the flop. I'd seem him do it with other sets and two pair hands and overpairs.

When his "set" nuts on the turn, however, I believe he would check trying to induce a bet or a call from me on the river. Had I actually thought of this and considered what he was betting and then really considered how he would play his various nines, I probably could have come to the conclusion that he had TT, JJ, or the counterfeited two pair. I really hadn't seen him raise draws in a raised pot (he reserved this to in position in a checked around unraised pot).

I beat myself up over this hand quite a bit because I didn't remember Pokey's post ("THINK"). I think I got caught up in the growing pot size instead of accurately thinking about his ranges and past actions.