Annoying live satellite situation WTF? (xpost in sttf)

[psyduck]

$500 live satellite to a 5K main event. 66 people entered, 6 people get seats, 7th gets $1500 and 8th gets $725.

final table - 8 people left. Average stack is around 50K, quite evenly spread out. Everyone is playing pretty tightly since the gambly spots all busted out. Biggest stack is probably 75K, couple 50K stacks, some 40K and 30K stacks, and 2 25K stacks - one of which is me.

Blinds 1500/3000 with an ante of 300 (pot is 6900 pf). Folded to me in CO. Button is tight usually and with this payout structure has tightened up even more (40K stack). SB is the other shorty (25K and has been tight as well). BB has been very tight/solid (but aggro) and has a 50K stack. Basically everyone has been folding to any sort of raise/push, and these 3 players are the tightest of an already tight table.

I open-pushed the very previous hand into the BB with K2s (didn't show).

Here I have A5o.

WHAT IT DO DOG?






Other stuff: blinds going up fairly quickly to 2K/4K.


I have no idea what to do in these types of spots. In a normal SNG I'd be pushing like top 80% or something. In an MTT I'm pushing 100%. In a structure like this I'm a loss for what to do.

Also, the table didn't really have any weak spots. Usually in these live satellites you have a couple people pushing and calling with [censored] like AT and 66 or whatever for average chip stacks. Here people were playing VERY tight (saw a guy fold AQo to a minraise in the BB correctly). So it wasn't like I could just fold into 6th or anything.

At the same time, I've seen some wacky stuff. I have enough for 5 orbits if I sit there mucking most of my hands trying to weasel in. Is it too much to ask for 2 people to busto out in 40 hands?

[psyduck]

Meh as for calling ranges, I'd venture to say that button is mucking things like AQ and AJ and TT- (probably not AK or JJ) since he's playing optimally. SB is probably overpushing wit AT+ and 77+ or so. BB is tighter than SB and slightly looser than button (if that makes any sense).

Button is probably the only one playing optimally. SB and BB will call with stuff like AQ and AK (and maybe smaller aces that have me dominated) which obviously [censored] it up for the both of us (me the pushee and the caller).

[psyduck]

That boring eh? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[FortunaMaximus]

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That boring eh? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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Naw. It's a push. You're freerolling for the seats, and need chips to distance yourself from the other short stack. That's higher risk/reward and I'd rather have something that isn't a middling ace open to domination from a better hand, flipping Broadways, etc.

However, 8-handed, you can fold and wait for another spot.

It depends on how you perceive your equity in these situations. If you're willing to bust to accrue steal or bust chips, you should be pushing top 79% here.

I don't mind finding another spot though, as across a couple orbits, you'll pick up a hand or two that stands races better than A5o does. I'd rather shove hands that will be live in case I get called.

Hope that helps, even if it didn't quite answer your question.

[psyduck]

I don't really agree with this. A5o has more equity against {top 10%} than say 76s.

edit: and the sootedness really means jack. This goes along with strassa's point of how people wait for a hand like 76s or T9s to resteal with, when really if you're stealing/restealing with hands like this, you really should be doing the same with J4 or whatever.

[FortunaMaximus]

I would be. If they're calling that tight, you're not getting called that frequently, so, yeah, move in any two.

[adanthar]

This is a live sat so players are everything...I mean, you can almost minraise/fold vs. two of the three if they play optimally, or move in any two regardless if they play a little too tight. Honestly I'd just shove and worry about it later. holla.

[Cornell Fiji]

Very borderline. I think both a push and a fold are fine but I like a push here bc once the blinds hit you your fold equity is really starting to diminish. With less than 25k I think that this is a push, with more than 30k I think that this is a fold.

You are right on the margin but I would advocate a push.

[beenben]

the only reason to fold is that you just pushed last hand. But two in a row is not three in a row. and it was folded to you in the cut-off and you have an ace. and the table is uber tight. and your M stinks and it's going to get even stinkier. push. but then you're done for a while unless you get a premium hand.