ICM Concept Check 12/180 turbo FT Steal

[bata2]

Bringing in a hand from $12/180 turbo final table, in order to do some ICM calculations with you:

PokerStars Tournament $11+$1 Holdem No Limit - Level XIX (4000/8000)
Seat 2: bata2 (32198 in chips)
Seat 4: BB (71931 in chips)
Seat 6: BTN (141167 in chips)
Seat 8: CO (24704 in chips)
All players post the ante 800
bata2: posts small blind 4000
BB: posts big blind 8000

Dealt to bata2: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
CO: folds
BTN: folds
bata2: raises 23398 to 31398 and is all-in


This is the initial hand in question. Something that intuitively seems to me like an unexploitable SB push. So lets see some ICM calculations. In order to keep the post as simple as needed i will post condensed results.

[bata2]

Lets see how EV changes:
279$ EV before the hand is dealt
265$ EV after folding
301$ EV after push and steal
365$ EV after push and win
158$ EV after push and lose


Now lets define some broad calling ranges. The villain in the hand is somewhere between tight and regular.
Tight 10%:
30.4% T8o
69.6% 77+, A9s+, ATo+, KQ
Regular 25%:
34.8% T8o
65.2% 22+, A2s+, A5o+, KT+, QT+, JT+
Wide 40%:
37.7% T8o
62.3% 22+, A2+, K2s+, K5o+, Q7s+, Q9o+, J8s+, JTo+, T8s+, 97s+ 86s+, 76s, 65s


And, lets perform an EV calculation :

Tight range:
EV =.90*301 + .10(.304*301 + .696*158)= 270.9 + 201 = 291$
Regular range:
EV =.75*301 + .25(.348*301 + .652*158)= 225 + 52 = 279$
Wide range:
EV =.60*301 + .40(.377*301 + .623*158)= 180.6 + 95.4 = 275$


So the push is:
+26$ (9.8% increase) if he calls 10%.
+14$ (5.3% increase) if he calls 25%.
+10$ (3.8% increase) if he calls 40%.


Given possible EV gains from a push, lets see how the BB equity changes:

378$ EV before the hand is dealt
392$ EV after I fold
360$ EV after I push and steal
299$ EV after I push and win
449$ EV after I push and lose

Tight range:
EV =.90*360 + .10(.304*299 + .696*449)= 324 + .10(90.9+312.5) = 324 + 40.3 = 364.3$
Regular range:
EV =.75*360 + .25(.348*299+ .652*449)= 270 + .25(104.1+292.7)= 270 + 99.2 = 369.2$
Wide range:
EV =.60*360 + .40(.377*299 + .623*449)= 216 + .40(112.7+279.7) = 149.4 + 156.9 = 306.4$

So BBs equity before the hand is dealt is 378$. It will rise to 392$ if I fold, and fall to 360$ if he folds to my push.

So lets see the EV(BB) of possible actions:
+14$ if i fold.
+4.2$ if he calls 10%.
+9.2$ if he calls 25%.
-53.6$ if he calls 40%.

Lets compare :
Fold: EV(me)=-14$ EV(bb)=+14$
Calls 10%: EV(me)=+26$ EV(bb)=+4.2$
Calls 25%: EV(me)=+14$ EV(bb)=+9.2$
Calls 40%: EV(me)=+10$ EV(bb)=-53.6$

Now the only thing we need are success percentages:
I will bust:
6.92% if he calls 10%. Success: 93.08%
16.3% if he calls 25%. Success: 83.70%
24.9% if he calls 40%. Success: 75.10%


So, given the above information, this push is a Must, or ?

[PsYcOsNiPeR]

Things like this make me realize how much I suck at poker. I understood practically 0 of your posts. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Edited to say: It's not that I don't understand your post, it makes sense, and its a good push going off of the numbers. But how did you come to those numbers, and WHERE did the initial numbers come from?

[SengioKang]

[censored] the ICM.... your M isn't even 3... you should practically be shoving any 2 here... 10 8 off is definitely in the +EV shove range according to HOH. BB might be looking to ride out the 2 short stacks going out to move up the money ladder, so he'll be more inclined to fold a non-monster IMO. don't overthink this one.... easy shove

[bata2]

The initial numbers are ICM calculated equity given our stacks and tournament payouts.

[b-komplex]

The key to this hand is that you post BB next and then you have zero FE and are basically going to find you have the pot odds to be calling with ATC. T8o is sweet here cause you'll have two live cards a lot when called and when you win ya +$100 EV easily probably more if you can pwn the shorties a bit.

[bata2]

@b-komplex, i dont post BB next. the shortstack does. So he is going to be pot commited next hand, which does or doesn not influence the decision to push?

[AMT]

really easy shove against most anyone.