Is Ace high ever good here?

roxtar · #1 08-10-2006, 02:49 AM

Villain is 57.5/2.5/.25 after 40 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($3.60)
Hero ($16.45)
SB ($11.85)
BB ($3.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.40.

Flop: ($1.15) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1, UTG calls $1.

Turn: ($3.15) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($3.15) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $2.1 (All-In), Hero ??

Final Pot: $5.25

I can't believe I'm running horribly enough to have to even ask this question. I'm particularly interested in the turn check... good/bad?

cabdo · #2 08-10-2006, 02:57 AM

He could have a number of things on this flop. He could have a simple flush draw or an open ended straight, maybe even a pair of 7s. The river bet, to me indicates weakness, but its possible he hit a pair of 8s with his straight draw. You may win this a few times, but you need to win it more than 60% of the time for this call to be profitable, so you probaly have to fold.

OXIO · #3 08-10-2006, 03:10 AM

I dont think you are good here. Im folding this one.

JackWilson · #4 08-10-2006, 03:24 AM

Pot Size: $5.25
To Call: $2.15
Pot Odds: 2.45 to 1

You're getting pretty decent odds from the pot. You only have to win this about 30% of the time to make money.

I have a bit of a problem with checking the turn behind and then not knowing what to do on the river. You make the turn check for two different reasons and in both cases your river action should be pretty clear:

1. You believe you are likely behind a significant portion of the time and take a free card.
2. You believe you are ahead some of the time but don't want to put a lot of money in the pot and want to see the showdown cheaply.

If you checked on the turn because of 1, it's pretty clear that you have to fold because you reckon you're behind more than 70% of the time. If checked because you wanted to see a cheap showdown, you obviously have to call. VP$IP/PFR%/AggF aren't enough to tell whether this guy is a calling station, but I suspect he is, so I'm inclined to just try and see a showdown cheaply in a normal situation. However, on a bit of a short stack, I expect him to make the river all-in quite often, and I don't think we can call it profitably. So I'm checking behind hoping to improve.

I think you should have bet less on the flop. Making it almost pot-sized means that if he calls the bet he's pretty pot-committed with only $2.1 behind. When he's a bit short-stacked, I think a half-pot bet on the flop accomplishes the same thing. If he'll fold because he doesn't have anything, he'll do so for $0.60. If he hit a piece and he's calling, you keep the pot smaller. If he peels for $0.60 he's more likely to give up on a later street than if he calls for $1. He also doesn't have any implied odds, so you don't have to bet big.

So, as played, I fold the river. I don't think we're ahead more than 30% of the time against this type of player.

EDIT: The turn check.
I think the turn check is fairly natural. You want to keep the pot small, you're not sure you have the best hand, you're not gonna play a big hand, you want to avoid him making his draw but with the significant possibility that he could have a made hand I don't think it's worth it. The turn check would have been even better if you bet less on the flop.

JackWilson · #5 08-10-2006, 03:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You may win this a few times, but you need to win it more than 60% of the time for this call to be profitable, so you probaly have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The pot is offering nearly 2.5 to 1.

cambraceres · #6 08-10-2006, 03:29 AM

This river is a call, the betting pattern is too suspect for me to let him go. You are ahead more than enough at this level.

Cam

cabdo · #7 08-10-2006, 05:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You may win this a few times, but you need to win it more than 60% of the time for this call to be profitable, so you probaly have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong. The pot is offering nearly 2.5 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I totally screwed up. good catch.

Thoth · #8 08-10-2006, 05:15 AM

Villain has .25 AF. He's not betting a missed draw if this is anywhere close to what his real aggression is.

AZplaya · #9 08-10-2006, 05:28 AM

yes, but not often enough to call, especially against a passive fish.