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#1
11-05-2007, 12:32 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
SNG Wiz says what now? I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand. What pushing range did you assign? [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but... a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast. 
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#2
11-05-2007, 12:37 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
I'm not looking at any plots, maybe I should buy Wiz [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Also, he can push 32o, let us know he's pushing ATC, and still have us fold > 98% of our range. How can he possibly crush the bubble worse than this?
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#3
11-05-2007, 12:40 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast. [/ QUOTE ] from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.
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#4
11-05-2007, 11:57 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] SNG Wiz says what now? I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand. What pushing range did you assign? [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but... a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast. [/ QUOTE ] wtf??? This makes no sense, pushing any 2 is completely 100% automatic. I know I just said it in the previous post, but your logic is way way way off.
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#5
11-06-2007, 12:08 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands ... [/ QUOTE ] This thread should be added to an anthology post list thing, it amazes me how fast the bandwagon can fill up before someone points out that there are no wheels on the cart. I've really started to wonder if folks are hitting reply to quickly or they are just playing some sort of meta game thang...
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#6
11-05-2007, 11:56 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2. [/ QUOTE ] If he's got any clue, he's not on any two. He can fold all day and continue to pwn with the short stack around. The more the blinds go up, the more prize pool he can take from suzzer each orbit. [/ QUOTE ] You on the pipe? Of course he should be on any 2.
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#8
11-06-2007, 02:02 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
Offhand it's probably a call but I dunno payout structure and crap. JJ performs extremely well against any 2. [/ QUOTE ] You do at least know that only top 2 get paid and this is the bubble?
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#9
11-06-2007, 02:09 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Offhand it's probably a call but I dunno payout structure and crap. JJ performs extremely well against any 2. [/ QUOTE ] You do at least know that only top 2 get paid and this is the bubble? [/ QUOTE ] Yes I do know. I'm not super experienced at the 6man I just figured the math would probably make it a call if the guy is pushing any 2. Depends what we think of them etc etc. I'm sure its a fold against some opps, but a call against good opps.
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#10
11-06-2007, 02:14 PM
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Re: $235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw
The only thing this hand is about is whether we give credit to a villain who "has been pretty active since he had a stack" for shoving ATC. The other poster's stuff about waiting is all well and good, but simply doesn't apply to this hand in a matter that outweighs other factors.
Most people who are playing these things don't differentiate between shoving 32o and 75s and 94o, heck even 87s and J3o or whatever. So IMO if I think villain is folding 32o here, then he is more than likely folding those other hands as well, and a call is no good. Instacall if this player is a good regular. Or has shown some more evidence of knowing how to exploit a bubble. [ QUOTE ] 75% is +.02. And if you knew you had that edge, would you call? I wouldn't. Not with shorty in his situation and will have half his stack in next hand. [/ QUOTE ] How much of an edge do you need to call here? I think your current/future edge is much better if you fold here.
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