[LO8] Crying call that river?

[Olrik]

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Omaha/8 (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

Turn: (5.70 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls.

River: (7.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.70 BB

im obviously not in good shape after that river donk but given the pot odds do you make a crying call here or not?

[Lucky Clubs]

I don't call here.

Obviously, it's closer if the river brings EITHER a potential flush OR a board pair, but when it brings both, the range of hands that beats you is wide enough that I'd fold even with these odds. MP1's passivity makes it even more likely that he was check-calling a set, two pair, or a flush draw.

The real clincher for me is position. If I check a river and my opponent bets, I will sometimes call if the opponent has shown willingness to make a play at the pot when I show weakness. But MP1 has bet out here, and the likelihood that it's a blocker bet with a weaker hand pales in comparison to the likelihood that this particular river hit his check-calling range on the flop and turn very hard.

[bodie]

The only way I would call here is if:
a) it was a gigantic pot
b) I had reason to believe that MP1 would make a play at the pot

The fact that MP1 called behind you all the way and then bet out on the river certainly makes it appear that he made his hand. I wouldn't even like flopping that straight, to be honest with you, with the flush draw already there. But of course you did all you could, betting every street and MP1 chased it all the way. That's O8 for you.

[Big Dave D]

Do you think your foe is 90% likely to have it here?

Can he only bluff here about 10% of the time?

ALthough you are almost certainly losing this final bet, mathematically, considering that the average donk prolly has some reasonable chance of donk bluffing here, this is much *much* better than passing.

gl

bdd