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#11
10-08-2007, 05:21 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Last time I'm gonna say it, but if you c/.r and bet the turn you will be laying the guy 6:1. You therefore are almost indifferent to him folding unless he has an undercard to your pair. There are only a few hands he can have with a 3 or 4 and most of them will call down anyhow. [/ QUOTE ] Why would he call down a 3? Is this an argument for c/r? Maybe it's just because my english isn't good enough but I don't understand what you are talking about. [/ QUOTE ] yes i am arguing for a flop c/r. he raised in the HJ so the only hands with low equity he is likely to have are A2-A3,22-33, and K3s. He calls down with most of that stuff anyhow. All other hands have 6+ live outs on the turn and if they fold we don't really care. c/c'ing the whole way down is still +ev but not nearly as good because he won't always bet the turn with A/K-hi and we never get him to fold a 6-outer. 
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#12
10-08-2007, 05:57 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
Don't you think he'll bet turn more often with hands you beat than call turn after you c/r flop? When he bets turn and check/fold river we gain more than if he folds turn after a flop c/r. Also if he 3-bets flop or donk turn, we just built a large pot that we may have to fold before river.
I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised. Maybe this guy is different but we have no info about that.
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#13
10-08-2007, 06:14 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
gurravassa,
"I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised." this is very much NOT my experience. But let's assume it's true. Say he has A8o and the board on the turn is still TT46r. If you c/r flop and he always folds to your turn bet, you win a 4 BB pot. If you c/c down and for some reason he always bet the river for you UI, you win 7 BB about 80% of the time (he has 9 outs) and lose 7 BB 20% of the time. Overall this works out to you winning a 4.2 BB pot. So it should be easy to figure out that if he happens to check either the turn or river with A-hi (which most ppl will do), then c/c'ing down is no good. Add in the fact that he will often call down with A-hi and its not very close. BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%.
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#14
10-08-2007, 09:03 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%. [/ QUOTE ] Wow, well I'll be a monkeyspank. I had no idea that overcards had that much equity on a board like this...
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#15
10-08-2007, 09:14 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
Perfect. Interesting is what to do if he raises either turn or river.
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#16
10-08-2007, 09:18 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
Perfect. Interesting is what to do if he raises either turn or river. [/ QUOTE ] I call down a turn raise, but fold if he raises the river. Standard?
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#17
10-08-2007, 10:36 PM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Perfect. Interesting is what to do if he raises either turn or river. [/ QUOTE ] I call down a turn raise, but fold if he raises the river. Standard? [/ QUOTE ] Seems right - he doesn't seem aggro enough to bluffraise a busted FD.
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#18
10-09-2007, 01:11 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
gurravassa, "I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised." this is very much NOT my experience. But let's assume it's true. Say he has A8o and the board on the turn is still TT46r. If you c/r flop and he always folds to your turn bet, you win a 4 BB pot. If you c/c down and for some reason he always bet the river for you UI, you win 7 BB about 80% of the time (he has 9 outs) and lose 7 BB 20% of the time. Overall this works out to you winning a 4.2 BB pot. So it should be easy to figure out that if he happens to check either the turn or river with A-hi (which most ppl will do), then c/c'ing down is no good. Add in the fact that he will often call down with A-hi and its not very close. BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%. [/ QUOTE ] How can he have 9 outs? If we don't raise the flop he has worse odds woth 6-outers. You'll lose sometimes when you c/r flop as well and then you'll lose more. You can't count the bets already in the pot when you compare EV in a certain spot in a hand. We don't loose 7BB when we're drawn out on river. Maybe Lags call more than they bet in your game, but in my game I'm pretty sure it's the other way around...
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#19
10-09-2007, 01:15 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] gurravassa, "I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised." this is very much NOT my experience. But let's assume it's true. Say he has A8o and the board on the turn is still TT46r. If you c/r flop and he always folds to your turn bet, you win a 4 BB pot. If you c/c down and for some reason he always bet the river for you UI, you win 7 BB about 80% of the time (he has 9 outs) and lose 7 BB 20% of the time. Overall this works out to you winning a 4.2 BB pot. So it should be easy to figure out that if he happens to check either the turn or river with A-hi (which most ppl will do), then c/c'ing down is no good. Add in the fact that he will often call down with A-hi and its not very close. BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%. [/ QUOTE ] How can he have 9 outs? If we don't raise the flop he has worse odds woth 6-outers. You'll lose sometimes when you c/r flop as well and then you'll lose more. You can't count the bets already in the pot when you compare EV in a certain spot in a hand. We don't loose 7BB when we're drawn out on river. Maybe Lags call more than they bet in your game, but in my game I'm pretty sure it's the other way around... [/ QUOTE ] He has 8. 6's are outs too.
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#20
10-09-2007, 01:24 AM
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Re: Playing against a LAG with weak two pair on a paired board
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] gurravassa, "I think a player like this generally is more inclined to bet Ax hands on a board like this than to call down if raised." this is very much NOT my experience. But let's assume it's true. Say he has A8o and the board on the turn is still TT46r. If you c/r flop and he always folds to your turn bet, you win a 4 BB pot. If you c/c down and for some reason he always bet the river for you UI, you win 7 BB about 80% of the time (he has 9 outs) and lose 7 BB 20% of the time. Overall this works out to you winning a 4.2 BB pot. So it should be easy to figure out that if he happens to check either the turn or river with A-hi (which most ppl will do), then c/c'ing down is no good. Add in the fact that he will often call down with A-hi and its not very close. BTW- you WANT him to fold the turn getting 6:1 cuz his equity is about 20%. [/ QUOTE ] How can he have 9 outs? If we don't raise the flop he has worse odds woth 6-outers. You'll lose sometimes when you c/r flop as well and then you'll lose more. You can't count the bets already in the pot when you compare EV in a certain spot in a hand. We don't loose 7BB when we're drawn out on river. Maybe Lags call more than they bet in your game, but in my game I'm pretty sure it's the other way around... [/ QUOTE ] He has 8. 6's are outs too. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah but we don't know that on the flop, but since he'll often have as as many as 9 outs on the turn since our hand is so vunarable, why is that a reason to build the pot on the flop if villain calls more than he bets as VMA thinks?
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