Ivey vs. Corey Pavin golf bet - Page 13

stinkypete · #**121** 01-04-2007, 05:49 PM

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If you think a 10 handicapper could break par on ANY course you know NOTHING about golf.

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again, you have no idea how easy a lot of courses play from the forward tees.

mmbt0ne · #**122** 01-04-2007, 05:51 PM

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have they played from the forward tees? have they played scrambles like this?

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This is it in a nutshell. As people get better, they keep moving back and playing more by the rules. No one ever starts to get good, then goes back to the red tees and plays by hitting 3 straight balls from each lie.

PITTM · #**123** 01-04-2007, 06:04 PM

i talked to my dad (a 15 handicap who has played that course and plays lots of scramble tournaments). he predicted pavin would win about 2 more holes than ivey.

rj

rokstedy · #**124** 01-04-2007, 06:12 PM

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Hey, I'll give you props for knowing about Nick's thread. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And yes the details there were different, but the general premise that guys like PI do not enter into the terrible bets that you think they do still holds. Basically, if a solid pro gambler enters into a bet and you think it's ridiculously against him - think again.

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You mean like craps? Don't try to sell me on Phil not ever taking bets where doesn't have an edge.

Somebody has to be winning these bets. Ask Negreanu if he's got an edge in his golf bets.

droopy0021 · #**125** 01-04-2007, 06:14 PM

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if i was offered this bet with 3 shots, i'd take it in a second, and i'm probably more like a 20-25 handicap at the moment (but i'd probably do better than your average 15 handicap - i just suck ass right now cuz i haven't played much in 2-3 years)

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stinky, this was in one of your earlier posts in this thread, followed by this in a recent post:

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a lot of those people don't understand how easy TPC at summerlin (and most other courses for that matter) plays from the forward tees. many also have little to no experience with scrambles.

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Those 2 statements don't seem to match with someone who would be a good judge of this bet. And it was stated to be 2 shots for Ivey, not 3. How could you do better than a 15 handicap, yet be a 20-25 (an estimate of how you would score) who hasn't played much in 2-3 years?

If Ivey is truly a 15+ handicap, I like Pavin. If he is better, different story (not sure then).

Scorecard follows:

Summerlin scorecard

TheWorstPlayer · #**126** 01-04-2007, 06:19 PM

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Hey, I'll give you props for knowing about Nick's thread. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And yes the details there were different, but the general premise that guys like PI do not enter into the terrible bets that you think they do still holds. Basically, if a solid pro gambler enters into a bet and you think it's ridiculously against him - think again.

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You mean like craps? Don't try to sell me on Phil not ever taking bets where doesn't have an edge.

Somebody has to be winning these bets. Ask Negreanu if he's got an edge in his golf bets.

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He likes playing craps. I doubt he likes playing weird scrambles against pro golfers nearly as much. And I'm not saying he definitely has the best of it. I'm saying there is no way he has way the worst of it. House edge in craps is not big either if played properly.

7n7 · #**127** 01-04-2007, 06:20 PM

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Hey, I'll give you props for knowing about Nick's thread. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And yes the details there were different, but the general premise that guys like PI do not enter into the terrible bets that you think they do still holds. Basically, if a solid pro gambler enters into a bet and you think it's ridiculously against him - think again.

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You mean like craps? Don't try to sell me on Phil not ever taking bets where doesn't have an edge.

Somebody has to be winning these bets. Ask Negreanu if he's got an edge in his golf bets.

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You guys that are comparing having an edge in golf bets and crap bets are comparing apples to oranges, or golf balls to dice if you will.

Phil is just a gambler and there's nothing he can do to influence his winning/losing in craps. Yeah, yeah, influence the dice, request higher odds (which could potentially result in bigger losses, not wins).

In golf, the pros go back and forth all day long about strokes given, where to play from. E.x.: Doyle plays from the reds and gets to use his driver on the fairway (may even be able to tee it up), etc.

TheWorstPlayer · #**128** 01-04-2007, 06:20 PM

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i talked to my dad (a 15 handicap who has played that course and plays lots of scramble tournaments). he predicted pavin would win about 2 more holes than ivey.

rj

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From the forward tees of this course? These details make all the difference in these bets. I would not be at all surprised to learn that this course plays more than average easier from the forward tees. Or that scrambles are significantly more advantageous when shooting from the forward tees.

stinkypete · #**129** 01-04-2007, 06:23 PM

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Those 2 statements don't seem to match with someone who would be a good judge of this bet. And it was stated to be 2 shots for Ivey, not 3. How could you do better than a 15 handicap, yet be a 20-25 (an estimate of how you would score) who hasn't played much in 2-3 years?

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i'd be a 20-25 now because i've played probably less than 5 rounds in the last year, and less than 15 in the last 2 years.

i'm capable of adjusting much better than your average 15 handicap. i'm capable of hitting the ball longer. i'm capable of better shots in general, but my consistency sucks right now because of lack of practice.

basically, i'm worse than your average 15 handicap right now (at stroke play), but because the variance in my individual shots is so high, i'd do better in a 3-shot scramble format.

and when i say i'm a 20-25, i mean if i stepped on the course right now. if you gave me a week to practice, i'd likely be better than a 15. give me a month and i'm in single digits.

rokstedy · #**130** 01-04-2007, 06:25 PM

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Hey, I'll give you props for knowing about Nick's thread. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And yes the details there were different, but the general premise that guys like PI do not enter into the terrible bets that you think they do still holds. Basically, if a solid pro gambler enters into a bet and you think it's ridiculously against him - think again.

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You mean like craps? Don't try to sell me on Phil not ever taking bets where doesn't have an edge.

Somebody has to be winning these bets. Ask Negreanu if he's got an edge in his golf bets.

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He likes playing craps. I doubt he likes playing weird scrambles against pro golfers nearly as much. And I'm not saying he definitely has the best of it. I'm saying there is no way he has way the worst of it. House edge in craps is not big either if played properly.

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He likes craps, he likes golf. Most of all, he likes to gamble. In fact, I can't think of anything more fun to do than gamble on golf. I've made bets on the course with people I don't even know, just because it makes the games more fun. Mind you, these bets weren't extravagant, or obviously lopsided.

Secondly, at $10K a hole, this isn't a very large sum for Ivey. That's like two orbits in the big game. So I can easily see Ivey viewing this is a fun lark where he expects to lose just as easily as I could see it as a legitimate wager he expects to win.