TDL : The Variance

[*TT*]

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Badugi is even worse but yeah they are both pretty disgusting.


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FWIW, since I know virtually nothing about this game. It seems when both are drawing 1 in badugi, the best hand going in is going to come out still ahead much more often than in TD. In other words, drawing smoother pays a lot more in badugi than it does in TD. Does the fact that in badugi it takes only 4 cards to complete a hand rather than 5 offset the lack of the last-draw-coinflip-effect?

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4 vs. 5 is pretty meaningless. The thing is that drawing in Badugi can never hurt your hand, so it's more like high draw than 2-7.

The main thing with variance in Badugi is that practically no one understands the odds in the game.

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cough cough cough.... the code has been broken.
And a lot more people know it than you may think, perhaps thats why there are a lot of math astute players

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[2461Badugi]

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cough cough cough.... the code has been broken.


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I'd say you've got a decent primer.

[DustinG]

It would be nice if we could get together and get a badugi game going sometime and then discuss the hands afterwords. I've played a little of the half-pot games, but have never seen the limit games going and have tried to start one a few times unsucsessfully. I wouldn't mind getting some experience before badugi comes to UB.

[Al Mirpuri]

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I've heard that the variance in stud is big, but I think I've also heard that it's lower. To me the rationale of it being lower is that you have more information available before you make decisions (tons of exposed/dead cards) and because you don't put much money in until the later streets. You have a better idea of how live you are drawing and it should be easier to put your opponent on a hand in many cases. To me it would seem like it should be lower, but I think I have heard that it's higher, so if someone could confirm or refute that, and if confirming explain why, that would be great. Maybe I should ask the stud forum too?

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I have found the variance in 7stud to be a lot lower than TDL. Its because you can see so much of the opponents hand that you know when it is correct to fold and when it is correct to play on. There is more variance in 7stud though than there is in HE.

[*TT*]

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Over the course of several months of regular play the worse downswing I experienced was 100bb, so I think a 200bb roll is perfectly fine for low limit holdem.

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I know this is not the topic but 200BB is no way near a safe roll for hold'em. 300BB is the absolute minimum. I'm in the middle of a 500BB+ downswing right now, its par for the course. For more information read the thousands of posts in the strategy, theory, and general forums, and also read Gambling Theory & Other Topics by Mason Malmoth - an excellent text on the subject of bankroll, variance, and standard deviation.

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[zymmyz]

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most people seem to think that once you make a Badugi a magic peacock is going to descend from the heavens and give you the pot

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Whenever I'm dealt a 5-badugi, I'm now going to think of this.

Also, lots of people are mentioning stud, but how does TD compare with omaha variance-wise?

[DustinG]

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Whenever I'm dealt a 5-badugi, I'm now going to think of this


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Also, lots of people are mentioning stud, but how does TD
compare with omaha variance-wise?

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I was always under the impression that the variance in omaha/8 was one of the lowest there is in limit poker. And I'm sure its low in PLO and PLO/8 too since pot-limit games reward the better players. I have heard the the bb/hr rate for a good o8 player is 2.5 compared to 1.5 for a good holdem player.

Who keeps TD records? What should the winrate there be?

[Thremp]

A 500+BB downswing in limit HE might not be a downswing. It might be a winrate.

That said... I have seen a good winning 30/60 HU guy tell me when he first started he spewed 400+BB right after turning pro.

[DustinG]

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A 500+BB downswing in limit HE might not be a downswing. It might be a winrate.

That said... I have seen a good winning 30/60 HU guy tell me when he first started he spewed 400+BB right after turning pro.

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The figure that I got of 200 was from Malmuth's Poker Essays Vol 2 (or maybe 1). In it he says a very good 3-6 player can survive with a $1200 roll. Certainly as you move up in stakes you are going to need a bigger roll to survive.

[Biggle10]

Maybe I can attribute my bad play to variance instead and give TDL another shot eventually. Ha.