AQ on KK flop

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
3pop was an easy one for me, despite the c/r. I might have the best hand I don't want people c/r-ing me on paired boards with nothing. I would've folded to a cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you have a strong sense that they have nothing you are much better off just calling him down. also against some observant players, they will cap the flop with a wider range you give them credit for because they will sense a flop 3-bet as being weak since it is *standard* for big hands to pop the turn or river.

also since you picked up a gutshot on the turn and that your villain is probably never folding a pair there is a good argument for taking a freebie on the turn.

[nightwood]

[ QUOTE ]
Nightwood, here's an exercise for you: [...]

I'll get you started:
Villain has a king 40%
Villain has pocket pair less than Q 40%
Villain is on a stone bluff 20%

What's the EV of a bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I tried it [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] (my first more complicated EV-calc ever). I must admit, calculating the bluff EV is above my head right now because there's too many variables (villains bluff-range, dirty outs to chop when villain holds A or Q, possible str8s, flushes for villains, bluff-line of villain ... ...)

Nonetheless since the result here is only slighly -EV I'm afraid I made some mistakes [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
After playing around with starting hand ranges I think the probability villain has K vs pair should be more like 3:1 than 1:1, which makes it worse for us.

'nuff talk .. here's my numbers so far:

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Ok, when BB raised pot was 5.5BB.

Assumptions: If BB holds K or pair, he'll bet T+R. If he's on a bluff on thus drawing to five outs he'll bet T but check R UI (bet improved). Villain doesn't hold AK/AQ/JJ/TT (PF).
I'll fold to a bet UI on R but call any A,Q,J,10, call R with pair and raise R with str8 (BB calls).

Villain holds K (40%):

Turn

bets - I fold UI (33/47): EV = .5 *(33/47) ~ -.351
bets - I spike pair or gutshot (14/47) and call

River

bets:
- I fold (8/47 * 36/46): EV = -1.5 * 144/1081 = -.2 / gutshot don't hit, no pair
- I call (6/47): EV = -2.5 * 6/47 = -.319 / turn-pair ING, (only AA-trips help, I left that out b/c it's highly improbable)

I guesstimate that in 20% of the cases my str8 will be counterfeited by a boat/quads and rr-ed.

- I raise (8/47 * 4/46) EV = .80 * (+10 * 16/1081) = +.118 / str8 is goot
- RR by boat I call EV = .20 * (-4.5 * 16/1081) = -.013 / str8 no goot

Total EV here : 0.4 * (-.351 - .2 - .319 + .118 - .013 ) = -.306

Villain holds pair (40%):

Turn as above.

River

bets - I fold (8/47 * 36/46): EV = -1.5 * 144/1081 = -.2 / gutshot don't hit, no pair

I approximate that villain will 10% improve to set.

- I call (6/47): EV = .9 * (+10 * 6/47) = +1.149 / turn-pair IG
- I call (6/47): EV = .1 * (-2.5 * 6/47) = -0.032 / turn-pair ING

Same str8-calcs as above.

Total EV here : 0.4 * (-.351 - .2 + 1.149 - .032 + .118 -.013) = .268

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Absolute EV (40/40): - .038BB
Absolute EV (3:1) : - .163BB

[CrMenace]

Nightwood,

This actually looks pretty good and is more complicated than what I was thinking. Since it's pretty safe to assume that calling a bluff is +EV, and I don't see the EV when you catch a pair in the second 40%, but I think your analysis shows that we should at least be calling villain's raise.

So good job, that's the EV of a call.



What I was intending to ask for was the EV of a 3-bet, which I would calculate something like this:

Villain has K (40%) - we hit runner-runner AA or straight about 2% of the time. So we win 1 bet 2% of the time and lose 1 bet 98% of the time. Total EV = 2%*1 + 98%*-1 = -.096

Villain has a pair less than Q (40%) - We hit an A or Q about 12.5% by the river. Total EV = 12.5%*1 + 87.5*-1 = -.75

Villain is stone bluffing (20%) - EV = 1.

So the total EV of 3-betting is 40%*-9.6 + 40%*-.75 + 20%*1 = -.484.

If we believe these ratios at all, 3-betting this flop is a really bad idea.

FWIW, 25%/25%/50% makes it +EV. Do we think villain is stone bluffing 50% of the time???

Can we reasonably conclude that calling is a good idea and 3-betting is bad?

[nightwood]

[ QUOTE ]


Can we reasonably conclude that calling is a good idea and 3-betting is bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we can. Calling is only slightly -EV even if villain never bluffs and the line is easy to play.
3betting is definitely -EV even under most favorable conditions.