Need Help Planning Hand: Set on Draw Heavy Board

[stinkpaw]

2/5 FR. Eff stacks $500

Typical hand where I get kinda lost:

Folded to Hero in CO w/2 red Queens

PREFLOP: Hero raises $15, button calls, BB raises to $40, hero and button calls. $15 is a little less than my standard opener, but wanted to get some action and not just take the blinds. BB could be thinking I an raising light to steel and putting a squeeeze on Button.

Flop ($120): black A, Q, T 2-suited (A&Q)

BB bets $40 (and has ~$420 behind) Hero and button have $460.

So what is my plan for the hand? I have trouble in these spots because:

- I am ~66% to alot of the draws out there, WB monsters like AA or KJ, and WA of AK, AQ, AT, TT. And if I push I'm most likely getting called only when behind.

- Button is still behind me.

- If I just call I put in close to 20% of my stack and I would probably call a scarey turn looking to catch a boat on the river.

1) Usually I'm like zOMG I have a set, push, and if I lose blame variance. But is that the right play?


2) How do things change with $1000 starting stacks? Say I flat call and the Turn blanks. We call a PSB and one on R (if that blanks too)

[stinkpaw]

I hate to self bump but really need some input on this.

[mynameisslime]

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[prayformojo]

Raise bigger preflop. 4bet preflop. Hammer flop. 100BB deep, no reads offered. Getting it all in with a set is good. As played, a standard pot sized raise looks good, obv calling a push.

Your thinking here is disturbingly weak. You say you're 66% vs a lot of draws, but way behind monsters like AA or KJ. AA is the only hand you're way behind. You're 35% vs KJ. If your opponents are at all bad, which I must assume they could be with no reads, they get all in with top pair, top two, pair/gutshot, flush draws, and simple gutshots a huge amount of the time. I'm rarely surprised to see 98s call a push on this flop. So you are a big favourite vs most of the hands in your opponents' range, a substantial favourite against better draws, a substantial but not insurmountable underdog to one holding, and a huge dog vs exactly one hand with 3 possible combinations.

[ahnuld]

pray for mojo is right on all accounts. /end thread

[coldi]

i also 4-bet this preflop since i want to be IP at least. if u only call, the button will call almost any hand he called before. With the AQT Flop u obv. raise and call a shove since there are only 2 hands that beat u and many others that still give u value.

If u lose, blame it on the variance [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]