60: AA valuebet river?

[runhot]

villain is total donkey . i have him at 55/5 for like 75 hands filtered 8-9 handed.

how is checking the turn? a random 8 is a big part of his range.

then again so is a naked 5 or 2. this guy is bad. most other likely holdings are flushdraws and overcards. i check turn figuring i may fold river to a big bet (especialy club).

then a club falls, and he checks. i now figure he doesnt have a flush or an 8. even a passive donkey will bet a flush here or an 8 after i check behind on turn... (i think?) go for value town on river? hows the turn check?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t1500)
MP1 (t1490)
MP2 (t1750)
MP3 (t1040)
CO (t1560)
Button (t1880)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1300)
UTG (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t80</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t80, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls t60, UTG calls t60.

Flop: (t330) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t20</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t300</font>, MP2 folds, BB calls t280.

Turn: (t930) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t930) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>

[Magnus1092]

I think you have to valuebet here. Around 300 is fine,

[Little John]

8 turn does not bother me. i'd bet turn big. villian seems to like his hand so i probably just push before he changes his mind. expect to get called by flush draw 99/TT.

[runhot]

what about river?

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
8 turn does not bother me. i'd bet turn big. villian seems to like his hand so i probably just push before he changes his mind. expect to get called by flush draw 99/TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. As played, I'd bet river for around 400.

[runhot]

a large part of this guys donking min bet on the flop isnt an 8?

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
a large part of this guys donking min bet on the flop isnt an 8?

[/ QUOTE ]

No idea...I've never played with him. But it's probably made up of 8's, FD's, other pp's like 44 and 66 and who knows what else. Donks do some weird [censored] sometimes.

[darinvg]

The 8 scares me. Is that bad?

[Scotty_12]

After two checks I really cant see us having the worst hand here very often - he limpcalls, donkbets, calls .. and hten checks two streets? I mean I knwo guys suck, but did he slowplay and then get scared of the club? Or was he just on [censored] anyways

[runhot]

scotty-
yea thats pretty much what i said in op, that he (edit- er almost) never checks twice with a hand that beats me.

so i made a bet i thought he would call with a 5,2,33/44/66.

i bet 300. he called and showed 96. nh sir.